As you’ve probably seen already the topline exit poll numbers for a number of state have now been leaked. Virginia’s (tie) is now public. I’d made a decision that we weren’t going to publish leaked exits. But now that they’re out sort of no point not discussing them. The gist is that the first round exit polls show most of the key swing states at about exactly where the poll averages were. Ours, Pollster, 538, etc.
I’d really, really stress (and I doubt I need to say this to anyone who remembers 2004) these are preliminary numbers. They can and they will change. That said though the first wave of numbers show the swing state poll averages were really close to the mark.