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The Specter ads against Sestak focus on the major sins of missing time in Washington to vote and paying family members in his campaign staff more than the rest of the staff. Basically, the small bore kind of stuff everyone tunes out immediately. In contrast, the Sestak ads are damning. He has Arlen Specter saying the following, "My change in party will enable me to be re-elected," in a very smarmy way twice in one 30 second spot. In between these little utterances, the commercial shows George Bush's endorsement of Specter. It ends with a clear message that Specter is doing this to save *his* job, not yours. I can't think of a more devastating ad in a Democratic primary.
In short, I think Specter is toast. Maybe he will join the Lieberman/Crist party?