We now have Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney (in many ways fairly similar candidates) saying they’re all but certain to run for President. There’s a particular oddness with each guy’s decision to run. But there’s another part of the equation garnering much less attention: both decisions must be hugely driven by the perception (both of the candidates) and members of the Republican establishment that the existing 2016 GOP field is very, very weak. The lack of viable existing candidates is creating a negative pressure sucking folks like Romney and Bush back into the mix. It’s a great sucking sound in more ways than one.
First on the list are Ted Cruz and Rand Paul. Both very different candidates, both very talented and popular politicians in their own way with their specific constituencies. But neither are guys (and I know there are many who disagree with me) who are doing to survive first contact with a national electorate. That’s not going to work for Ted Cruz. And it’s not going to work for Rand Paul. After those two – who are dynamic and driving forces on the GOP right (though Paul is more heterodox) – you have other more conventional candidates, Scott Walker, for example. But they’re not clearly strong candidates.
There’s no taking away from Walker that he won three straight governor’s contests in four years, each extremely hard fought and after pushing through a legitimately aggressive conservative agenda in a blue-ish state. But he is at best untested in a national context – and he has continuing legal entanglements. Chris Christie may have dodged the Bridgegate bullet. But it’s still added to his numerous but not often discussed liabilities. He’s now officially net unpopular in his own state. And that’s rough because he is tonally unviable in large parts of the country – once people get over getting excited about seeing him yell at teachers (See Giuliani, Rudolph; tri-state area; guys with tempers who make Republicans happy). Then you have genuine bozos like Marco Rubio that I think everyone has probably lost hope in.
My colleague David Kurtz notes that there real story here is that divided nature of the Republican party, which puts the center of gravity and dynamism on the right but creates a right that is difficult to sell in a national candidate. In that sense, it’s a replay of Boehner as a weak Speaker but more for structural reasons than merely personal ones.
For all the talk about inherent Democratic advantages in presidential elections, party control is notoriously hard to maintain into a third presidential term. And 2014 was certainly a strong year for the GOP in ways that cannot solely be attributed to mid-term demographics. Both seem to be bringing the incredible weakness of the present GOP field into high relief.
