The TPM Senate Scoreboard currently stands at Democrats 50, GOP 49, Toss Up 1. (This count includes independents with whichever party they caucus with.) Beneath the numbers the Democrats look well positioned to control the Senate in 2017.
The races that make up those 50 seats all look solid with the exception of Pennsylvania. The Democrat McGinty has a 2.6 point lead over Toomey. But the race hasn’t been polled in a couple weeks. Given the scale of the Clinton lead and edge in turnout operation, I think Toomey will lose that race. But obviously that’s a very close margin. So you can’t rule him out. Then there’s a super tight race in Nevada. After those two races you have six other races which are by some measure competitive but where Republicans lead: Iowa, Missouri, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina and Florida. In the first four Republicans have between a 5 and 10 point lead. In NC is 2.3 and Florida 2.4.
Put all of that together and you get a pretty solid chance to win at least 50 seats, which would give the Democrats control, assume a tie-breaking Democratic Vice President. Then you have a credible shot and winning three more seats. Conceivably in a Trump collapse scenario a few more seats.
At this point, the mix of chaos and disillusionment at the presidential level, combined with what seems to be a near total lack of a presidential field operation which buoys down ticket candidates, I think there’s good reason to think Democrats have an advantage in any close call situation. Right now it we’re really talking about four states: Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina – each perennial battleground states which Clinton has a strong ground operation.
All told, Dems look well positioned to reclaim the senate. But it’s likely to be by a narrow margin.
