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What we have out now are Ohio, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.
North Carolina looks pretty solid for Romney right now. Figure Romney takes it. Florida, unless I'm missing something, is looking pretty strong for Obama. It's razor thin at the moment. But the remaining votes are mainly in the big Democratic counties in the south. Virginia looks more favorable to Romney but that one's still up in the air. Ohio continues to look strong for Obama.
Romney loses any of those four and he's done.