We’re getting the first exit polls out of today’s election in Israel. And they are showing unexpected strength for Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party over Netanyahu’s Likud. It seems clear Gantz’s is doing better than expected. But it’s less clear whether he’s ahead. And if he is ahead the coalition of the right still seems larger, even though a number of parties on the right appear to have come under the electoral threshold. If this seems hyper-cautious, I’ve learned over time, Netanyahu always ends up winning. It’s a law of nature. But things look to be turning out at least a bit differently.
A couple other observations.
The exit polls suggest the two major parties greatly outperformed all the other parties. Haaretz has an average of the exit polls which shows Gantz (Blue and White) with 37 seats, Netanyahu (Likud) with 35 and then the next three parties with 7 seats each. That’s something like what Israeli politics were a couple generations ago. Those three parties are two religious parties (Shas and UTJ) and Labor. The average of the exit polls has 8 parties with between 7 and 4 seats each.
Again, just based on the average of exit polls, only one non-Zionist/Arab party appears to have made the threshold. Hadash/Ta’al with 6 seats. That’s a dramatic difference from the current Knesset where a coalition of Arab parties had 13 seats.
Assuming that Blue and White gets the most seats (by no means certain but at least possible, maybe probable), that likely means Gantz gets the first chance to form a government. But he’d face a real challenge to do so. Looking at this average, he would have 37 seats and then 12 more from ‘natural allies’ – Labor and Meretz. So 11 seats short of 60. There are a couple rightwing or center-right parties that might conceivably join a coalition. Kulanu is probably the most likely with 4 seats. You also have two religious parties with 7 seats each. In the old days, the religious parties would join whichever camp to protect their budgetary privileges. But these aren’t the old days. Perhaps one of those would join.
Finally, any Gantz government would need to rely on at least the passive support of Hadah-Ta’al, the one Arab/non-Zionist party that appears to have met the threshold. That’s a whole other issue.
Basically, there may not be enough tape and baling wire and glue to put together Gantz’s conceivable coalition. But it’s maybe possible. And that’s only if his party gets the most seats and he gets a chance to try to form a government.
Worth remembering the premise of contemporary Israeli politics: Netanyahu always ends up winning no matter what.
Late Update: Final point. One of the interesting dimensions of recent Israeli elections is that Netanyahu wants to get the most votes for his party mainly because that means he gets first shot at forming a government. It’s also more direct power for his party, etc etc. The problem is that if Likud maxes out that can hold down the numbers of his allied parties he needs to actual build a government. So there’s a sweet spot of a clear plurality of seats for Likud but a bunch of other right wing parties doing well. It’s a constant issue, with the right wing parties usually bleating that Netanyahu is trying to destroy them and really Netanyahu’s only real goal being self-preservation. These exit polls suggest he may have slightly over-performed for Likud and wiped out a few key coalition partners. Naftali Bennet’s new party may have been wiped out altogether. But again, the math still looks considerably better for a coalition of the right than the center or center-left.
