PollTracker Daily #1

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With the election now a mere four weeks away, starting today we’re going to be reviewing the most noteworthy and important polls from the last 24 hours. It won’t be encyclopedic. For that, check out PollTracker. Here I’ll be looking at the key soundings that give us new insight or evidence into November’s outcome – especially the battle for the Senate, though we’ll be looking at all races. If once a day isn’t enough, remember, download PollTracker Mobile, the only mobile app that notifies you on your iPhone or Android device every time a new poll is released in a race you’re following.

So with that let’s get to it.

There were two major releases that came out over the last 24 hours that, taken together, gave Democrats some reason to think the momentum of the last two weeks, which seemed to show the Republicans finally moving into a clear lead for Senate control, might be ebbing or changed. One was the release of a SurveyUSA poll showing Alison Lundergan Grimes up by 2 points over Mitch McConnell.

Most observers had concluded that McConnell had finally opened a clear lead over Grimes and that this race was likely over or near to it. After all, it’s hard to see how a Democrat could win a Senate seat in this cycle in a coal-dominated culturally conservative state like Kentucky. But remember, McConnell is very unpopular.

This is only one poll, though it’s from a quality pollster. And McConnell still has to seem a strong favorite. (A CBS/NYT/Yougov sounding with more older data showed McConnell holding a 6-point lead.) But it does suggest a surprise is still possible in Kentucky and one that could seriously upset Republican plans.

Then there are two polls out of Kansas, showing a mixed picture. CBS/NYT/YouGov show a tied race at 40 percent while NBC/Marist show Orman with a commanding 10-point lead.

The NBC/Marist poll is more current and the totality of data out of this race makes the situation look very bleak for Roberts. Most models have continued to assume that Roberts wins this race since Kansas is such a historically and overwhelmingly Republican state. But I think that’s no longer likely.

The next key thing to look at is a huge batch of polls released yesterday by CBS/NYT/Yougov. We’ve already mentioned ones on Kansas and Kentucky. But they hit all the key battlegrounds. They show a tie in Iowa (Braley +1) and a 3 point lead for Mark Udall in Colorado. These are both races which seemed to be moving away from Democrats in the last two weeks after long periods of stand off or clear but small leads for the Republicans. Those are both races Democrats really, really need to win to hold on to the Senate. And they are states that, given recent history, they should be able to win. On the other side of the ledger this batch showed Tom Cotton (R) leading Mark Pryor in Arkansas and Dan Sullivan (R) leading Mark Begich in Alaska. It’s hard to see Democrats losing both of those races and not losing the Senate. Possible, not likely.

All told, on day one of our daily review, a mild up day for Democrats but Republicans continue to look like clear but by no means overwhelming favorites to take the Senate.

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