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Obama By 3

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Newscom

This number is sure to cheer Obama supporters since the last WaPo/ABC news poll had Obama by 2. Basically an unchanged race since just before The Debate.

What's interesting to consider is just what happened in the interim. There's only been one premium national poll conducted since the debate -- the Pew Poll from just after the debate which showed Romney by 4 points. I'll probably catch some grief by how I'm defining 'premium' here. It's somewhat arbitrary. There are various polls I put a lot of stock in that I'm not including. But just to be clear I'm referring to the polls put out by CBS/NYT, NBC/WSJ, WaPo/ABC and Pew. This is the first from the first three on that list since the debate, if I'm not mistaken. Much of what we've been relying on over this 10 days are daily tracking polls, which are proliferating rapidly. But Gallup and Rasmussen had a tie or even a small Romney margin for much of the year.

The swing state numbers over the weekend were a bit more friendly to Obama -- particularly the one of Ohio by PPP.

So is Obama coming back? Or was he never gone? I suspect it's a bit of both. But things have been so weird and chaotic over the last six weeks I wouldn't bet on anything.