SurveyUSA is doing a series of McCain vs. Obama head to head match-up polls in different states testing an almost mystifying number of vice presidential possibilities for each nominee. Their poll of Pennsylvania is out today. And the snapshot is that John Edwards — someone who I don’t think many have considered as a Veep possibility this year — is, from this poll at least, Obama’s strongest pick.
The real headline though is the baseline number: McCain vs. Obama without veep nominees attached. On that SurveyUSA has Obama beating McCain 48% to 40%. And this, remember, was the nut Obama wasn’t supposed to be able to crack.
You can see the range of possibilities here, which go from a very narrow McCain lead to an Obama landslide.
To be clear, I do not expect Obama to win Pennsylvania in a landslide. I think it will be very tight. But this is a potent corrective to the idea that Obama can’t win the state.
Late Update: TPM Reader SS makes the point — and one I agree with — that we shouldn’t read too much into the numbers for these different veep possibilities because a number of them have almost zero name recognition. I would guess that very few people around the country have any idea who Pawlenty or Sebelius even are. So, not that they mean nothing. But I’d see those as very mutable. What is striking is that even plugging in a lot of names that a lot of people have never even heard of, the terrain seems to tilt heavily in Obama’s direction.
Later Update: A good point from TPM Reader DR …
I think the thing that jumps out at me about that chart is the way Obama’s choice seems pivotal, while McCain seems static with a veep choice that will have little impact on his standing. If you look at it, Pawlenty, Romney, Lieberman, and Huckabee all make appearances up and down the chart (all with varying degrees of name recognition), meaning they could be viewed as good, bad, or, more likely, insignificant to his standing. On the other hand, when you look at Obama, Edwards is clearly the best choice for him (high name recognition), while Rendell is a clear second (home state), and Hagel and Sebelius have poorer showings (low recognition). It is of course true that Sebelius isn’t really a worse choice than Edwards, people will get to know her if she’s chosen. But the point of greater importance I see is that, veep choice aside, McCain already trails Obama, but when you factor in the veep choice Obama has a chance to make serious gains while McCain seems like he’ll be stuck at the same barely competitive spot no matter who he chooses.
