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Neck n' Neck

Let me say a little bit more about this. I haven't followed this race that closely. And Markey, though I think he'd be a great senator and has been a stalwart in the House, has a bit of the non-populist air that can trip Democrats up in Massachusetts. But what am I missing here?

Look at the chart I just linked to. Markey appears to have a solid 10 point spread over Gomez and this is in a state with an overwhelming Democratic advantage. Yet I've been hearing over the last week that this race is 'neck and neck'. And a few days ago the Cook Political Report moved it to "toss up."

Hearing these reports I had assumed the polls must have tightened dramatically. But that doesn't appear to be the case at all. What am I missing?