As long as everyone has nothing to do but perseverate over polls until tonight’s debate, I thought I’d give you a walk-through of the six national polls released today.
Monmouth: Clinton +3
Quinnipiac: Clinton +1
YouGov/Econ: Clinton +4
Bloomberg/Selzer: Tie
Morning Consult: Clinton +2
Franklin Pierce: Clinton +2
If you add these up and get a simple average they average out to Clinton +2. The current PollTracker Average is Clinton +1.2 but that takes the trend into account and obviously polls before today.
An additional bit of information is that we are using the head to head result as opposed to the multi-party result. And most but not all of those lean slightly more to Trump.
Of these polls, I would say Selzer and Monmouth have the best rep, with Quinnipiac only just a shade lower. Many would put them all in top tier. YouGov has a decent rep but it’s online and I’m a bit skittish about online polls this year. Morning Consult is another online with less of a track record. Franklin Pierce is another poller but I have less of a sense of them outside New Hampshire.
