TPM Reader H- sees what’s been a recurrent pattern that makes more sense of the Indiana polls …
I think if you read the polling results of the various Indiana polls carefully, they are not as variable and contradictory as they might first appear. Nearly every poll in the last week has put Obama’s number within one or two points of 43%. On the other hand, Clinton’s numbers have varied much more dramatically in the 42-54% range. That variation tends to correlate negatively with the number of undecideds. So it would seem that what’s going on is both candidates have solid bases of support in the low 40s, but when you start pushing less firm voters, they go overwhelmingly for Clinton (an indication that Zogby himself has also acknowledged). This still isn’t very good news for Obama, but it does mean that pushing his supporters out and changing a few minds gives him a decent shot at keeping Indiana close.
I want to make a totally separate point. I agree with your posts from about a month ago about how irrational it is for a Democratic voter supporting the losing primary candidate to defect to McCain in November, since Clinton and Obama are so close on the issues compared to McCain. But I have to say, as someone who was marching in New Hampshire in 1991 for Bill Clinton, who ran the campus Democrats for his ’92 campaign, who interned in his White House, who argued against impeachment at every turn, who even defended the pardons, who has been an enormous and unwavering admirer, and who has been disgusted with his own parents for their seemingly irrational hatred of Hillary Clinton, there is something about the way she has run this campaign. From having people on her campaign raise Obama’s drug use, to her jumping on the bandwagon for every right-wing cheap shot, to her new populist, “got no truck with economists” stance, its been craven. More craven than I could possibly imagine.
If somehow against all odds she got nominated, I’d vote for her, but I’d do so utterly unconvinced that the quality of her leadership wouldn’t bring about disastrous results no less than the disastrous results that McCain’s wrongheaded policies and own cravenness would bring about. Yes, her policy positions would be much better than McCain’s. But if she’s this divisive, this self-preserving, this craven, I think the results can still be horrible, even with policy positions that are much closer to mine. At this point I feel like it would be the hardest vote for a Democrat I’d ever cast.
Now, I’m a Democratic fundraiser. And as detailed above, a very long time Clinton supporter. If I’m this repulsed, if it seems this craven to me, and I’m this pessimistic about her leadership, can I be alone? That doesn’t even factor in the breach with younger voters, netroots activists, and African-American voters a Clinton nomination would bring about at this point.
Had to get that off my chest.
