While we’re waiting, this is really going to be a question of whether these exits poll, which have now been officially released by the networks, are close to accurate.
Here’s the big story. According to CNN, Obama is narrowly winning among men (53%-47%), and Hillary is winning women, (55%-44%). As has been the case in almost all the big primaries, women significantly outnumber men in the Democratic primary electorate. According to the exits 58% of voters were female.
So it’s closer to the percentage among female vote percentage than the men’s. But that still leaves you with a very tight race — something on the order of a 3-5 point win for Clinton. So a win, but by no means a big one.
All that said, remember, the exits out of Ohio had it a much closer race than it ended up being.
