Is Paul Ryan the Unicorn?

In this photo taken June 9, 2015, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., answers questions during an interview with The Associated Press in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington. First, give pr... In this photo taken June 9, 2015, House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Paul Ryan, R-Wis., answers questions during an interview with The Associated Press in his office on Capitol Hill in Washington. First, give presidents the power to strike trade deals. Then overturn President Barack Obama’s health care law, overhaul the tax code and reform welfare. And someday? Figure out whether to run for president. Call it the New Ryan Plan, a map not just to big changes in the nation’s fiscal policy, but to Paul Ryan’s future. It points the ninth-term congressman and chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee away from the presidential campaign trail and into the thicket of policy that he says will set the country on better financial footing. The path likely emerges at a familiar decision point _ whether to run for president _ somewhere down the road. Ryan, 45, says he might decide to take that step, someday. (AP Photo/Molly Riley) MORE LESS
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

Clearly from everything we’re hearing, basically every Republican is hoping, begging, pleading with Paul Ryan to run for Speaker. And it seems clear he has the votes and then some. But here’s what’s not clear to me. The premise of the Ryan boomlet or avalanche is that he has so much heft and power – or popularity which means power and heft – that the Freedom Caucus and associated folks will essentially say, Okay, cool no shutdowns or debt default hostage taking.

And that seems like a very questionable proposition.

Alternatively, he could make the pledges to the Freedom Caucus that he’ll go automatically to shutdowns and so forth. But it’s hard for me to imagine him doing that or wanting the job on those terms.

Now perhaps the caucus is simply so shellshocked at this point that Ryan can just come up with some salving and nonsensical bromide like “No shutdowns is the new shutdowns” and everyone will just spontaneously agree and be unanimous and that’s it. But fundamentally, it’s not clear to me that Ryan’s popularity really changes the core structural dynamic which is that the hard right of the caucus will only support a Speaker on terms that no figure of substance or legitimacy is willing to accept.

Not saying Ryan won’t happen. Just not clear me how he squares this circle – all the pro-Ryan hysteria notwithstanding.

Latest Editors' Blog
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: