Clearly from everything we’re hearing, basically every Republican is hoping, begging, pleading with Paul Ryan to run for Speaker. And it seems clear he has the votes and then some. But here’s what’s not clear to me. The premise of the Ryan boomlet or avalanche is that he has so much heft and power – or popularity which means power and heft – that the Freedom Caucus and associated folks will essentially say, Okay, cool no shutdowns or debt default hostage taking.
And that seems like a very questionable proposition.
Alternatively, he could make the pledges to the Freedom Caucus that he’ll go automatically to shutdowns and so forth. But it’s hard for me to imagine him doing that or wanting the job on those terms.
Now perhaps the caucus is simply so shellshocked at this point that Ryan can just come up with some salving and nonsensical bromide like “No shutdowns is the new shutdowns” and everyone will just spontaneously agree and be unanimous and that’s it. But fundamentally, it’s not clear to me that Ryan’s popularity really changes the core structural dynamic which is that the hard right of the caucus will only support a Speaker on terms that no figure of substance or legitimacy is willing to accept.
Not saying Ryan won’t happen. Just not clear me how he squares this circle – all the pro-Ryan hysteria notwithstanding.