Into the Hot Zone

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We’re into the final 48 hours of campaigning for the 2010 midterm. Our team is going to be with you nonstop for the final 72 hours. And there are a couple quick points I wanted to flag for everyone’s attention. First, we’re now in the phase — actually have been for the last 48 hours or so — when campaigns can launch attacks that they don’t think the opposing campaign or the press will have time to investigate, refute or complain about. So even though most of the action is now moving to the ground game, be ready and unsurprised for more than the usual run of nonsense and desperate gambits from all sides.

Next, polls. A bunch of polls came out yesterday. But not that much that really stood out as changing the equation in a big way. With some exceptions, mainly they confirmed the existing trends. (Let’s keep an eye on OH-Gov, I’m not certain that one’s done.) But we should expect an avalanche of polls to come out tonight and tomorrow. Many of those will simply be duplicative. But not all. Remember, there are a large number of House races that have only been polled once or twice or in a few cases not at all. That means that for all the prognostication and guess work we’ll likely get some polls that suddenly make it much more clear how some key races are going to turn out. And there are probably going to be a few real surprises. Our staff will be adding new numbers through the day to the TPMPolltracker database. And we’ll be keeping you posted on the important ones as we go.

We’ll enter them all of course. But the numbers are going to be popping fast and furious, often from pollsters who only very occasional do political polls. So you can be the difference between our finding out a couple hours after a poll has been released and a couple minutes. If you see a poll that’s not in our system yet, definitely let us know. And the same goes for all election news that will be coming out throughout the day. It’s part of our system to rely on your tips and leads every day. So please keep them coming today as much as any other.

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