I’ve spent the morning trying to come up with the list of Senate races that I think we’ll be the real tells on election night and in these last couple weeks before election night. Given the profusion of polling data, it’s a relatively straightforward exercise: Nevada & West Virginia & Illinois are looking like the real late-night calls. Then after those California, Washington state, maybe Kentucky. I’m not saying other races aren’t in play. And certainly there will be a few that really surprise us. But you can see pretty clearly the half-dozen or more races that the next Senate is going to turn on.
In the House though it’s much less clear. Not because we don’t know the big picture but because it’s very hard to get a read on the small picture.
That’s because very few congressional races get the density and quality of polling to really get a clear sense of where the race stands. At most, the great majority of races have been polled one or two times, often by pollsters whose quality may be good but whose track record isn’t that well known. And because of that we end up relying heavily on the congressional generic ballot (which at the moment has swung back against the Democrats) or benchmarks like the presidential result in a given district from 2008. By definition, any Democrat in a district that McCain won in 2008 has to be at least in some jeopardy. And in some cases, quite a lot of jeopardy.
But again, which are the races we should be watching most closely? Not who’s in most jeopardy but which are the races whose outcome will be the tells about the big picture? Which are the close ones we should be watching most closely?
One reason this occurred to me was when I saw the news that the SEIU is doing a big ad buy in Viriginia’s 5th district where freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) is trying to hold on against Republican Robert Hurt. On the face of it, in this climate, you have to wonder: why are they spending money on Perriello? He’s a fairly liberal rep who only just barely won in 2008 in what is actually a pretty conservative district. Even if the Dems had had a slamming two years and Obama was still super popular, you’d have to figure that Perriello would have faced a really challenging reelection battle. But when you look at the recent polls, he’s actually still holding his own. A number of recent polls show it neck and neck. And I don’t think SEIU would spend their money if they thought it was a lost cause.
So again, I’d like your insights and guidance on this one. Let’s look below the toplines. Which are the dozen or so races we should be watching most closely? The House equivalents of the Nevada Senate race or the one in West Virginia? The ones where the trends over the last two weeks will tell us where we’ll be on November 3rd.
Late Update: Responses from TPM Readers …
TPM Reader JB responds …
I think it might be helpful to look at a situation like that in Ohio between Zack Space (OH-18) and John Boccieri (OH-16). Both districts are fairly conservative but in Space you have a guy who won in 2006 and held on pretty handily in 2008. He took some tough votes last year for cap-and-trade and the stimulus. He voted for HCR the first time around, and then against it on the final vote. He basically turned full reactionary at that point, demanding a vote on all Bush tax cuts, etc.
Boccieri on the other hand, though nobody’s model progressive, has tended to run as a Democrat , rather than “Republican-lite.” He’s defended his vote for HCR on the trail. It will be interesting to see if one goes down while the other stays. Obviously, there is no way to get a perfect comparison due to differences in the districts, effectiveness of their opponents, etc., but I think these are two to watch on election night.
TPM Reader ZH …
I really think the race in New Mexico’s 2nd district, between Democrat Harry Teague and Republican Steve Pearce is interesting. You have an actual case of voting to keep the gains made in ’08 or (since Pearce held this district from 2002-2008 before losing a Senate bid) going back to the pre-Obama congress. NM tends to flip between red/blue often, Teague’s a fairly conservative Democrat in conservative district, has voted against Pelosi several times, so think it’s a good measure of the strength of the anti-incumbent vibe.
TPM Reader TB …
My district I think might be a hard one to call. I live in Bill Fosters district (IL-14?). Here is a Democrat that beat a perennial loser in Jim Oberweis for a special election and then again in the general, to take over former Speaker Dennis Hastert’s seat. This is the far west Chicago suburbs all the way to the Mississippi through some very Rural Farm Country. Yet polls I have seen have been neck and neck, which I am quite shocked about. I have to wonder if it has to do with Foster just keeping his head down and his mouth shut while supporting most of the important stuff (Yes on Healthcare and Stimulus, No on cap and trade). The ads from him that I have seen have been mostly positive Biography type ads. It seems like people that seems to go out of their way to make headlines just make more trouble for themselves.
