Winding its way through this year’s primary process is a continuing concern that Republicans are somehow gaming the Democratic primary process. It was raised early on against Obama — that his substantial support from independents and crossover Republicans was evidence of trying to saddle Democrats with the weaker nominee. More recently we hear again and again from Obama supporters that Hillary Clinton’s victories on March 4th and perhaps going forward are padded with the votes of Republicans who Rush Limbaugh has gotten to vote for her in an effort to derail Barack Obama’s candidacy. Today a long time TPM Reader even asked whether I didn’t think it was possible that Barack Obama’s huge fundraising numbers weren’t made possible by Republicans trying to make him look stronger than he really is.
Since these questions come up a lot let me say for the record that I think all of these claims are nonsense. Some more than others of course. I’m about as sure as I can be of anything that Republicans aren’t engaged in a massive clandestine effort to pump Barack Obama full of record-breaking amounts of campaign cash. But I’m also pretty sure all of Limbaugh’s yapping hasn’t made any substantial difference in the Democratic vote totals. Certainly, there’s a possibility of this once one side’s primary process is over. But while a few true political obsessives may engage in this sort of too clever double-bank shot voting, I’ve never seen any evidence that large numbers of people will turn out at the polls to vote for people they don’t actually support.
It’s hard to prove a negative. And this is just my opinion, though somewhat educated, I think. But I just don’t think these sorts of things ever turn out to be true. They’re unproven and largely undisprovable speculations that partisans on all sides use to paper over outcomes that don’t conform to their assumptions and desires.
If you don’t agree, I’d like to see the evidence.
Late Update: TPM Reader DS knows it sounds nutty but thinks there may be something to it …
While I certainly donât believe that Republicans are donating loads of money to Obama to make him look stronger, I am positive that the Republicans are trying to garner more support for Hillary to keep this race close and bloody Obama up. As for evidence, I probably have as much as you have to argue the contrary. . . . .none. All you need to do is listen to Rushâs show any day as he gloats about âoperation chaosâ as he calls it. He even has made merchandise regarding it. Not only are callers calling in and telling to the entire country that they are voting for Clinton in large numbers, they are also being selected as county and state delegates, possibly even delegates that get to go to the convention. It has gone even further though. He is in the process of coordinating a text messaging system or something that allows Limbaugh and the selected delegates to coordinate their efforts in some fashion. Listen, I know how this sounds, but all you need to do is go through his transcripts and listen to his show. Can Limbaughâs minions make a difference, maybe or maybe not? In a close race like this a handful of delegates can be all that matters, especially if it goes to super delegates. Check it out for yourself.
Later Update: TPM Reader KA disagrees too: “Well I have to admit that as a Kansan, I often voted in primaries as a Republican to offset votes for someone I didn’t want. And I know lots of people who do. Whether large numbers do, I don’t know. If you are in a state where your party NEVER wins (or rarely), voting becomes more of a free for all.”
