TPM Reader HW chimes in on the Newt question …
Your analysis of Gingrich v. Romney really folds down to one line: if the Republican power brokers can prevent a candidate who can’t beat Obama from getting nominated, then Romney will be nominated. Full stop, no need for further analysis.
Whether that initial presumption is true is the better question. Ultimately, as most of the non-Romney’s fade away and movement conservatives/tea partiers start to consolidate around one (probably Gingrich now, but possibly still Perry), the question of whether the process can stay within the control of the GOP’s sane power brokers will be a much more important question than the questions about any of the individual players, which really are pretty well settled, even with 13/14 debates to go.
I’m conflicted on this one. On HW’s premise, it’s hard to argue that the GOP power brokers really control this process. Of course, it’s not quite that all or nothing. They have a great effect. And I imagine those party elites will be able to make a pretty persuasive case that Newt can’t win a nationwide election.
That said, I guess I grant the point. If that’s my premise, I guess it’s a shaky one.
I think I go on the premise that stuff that nuts just doesn’t happen. And usually I’m right.
Late Update: TPM Reader DH thinks the same …
I take some issue with the assertion that “Republican power brokers” would step in to stop a Newt nomination. He swims in the same unpredictable current as everyone else, and if he learns to navigate them there’s no reason he couldn’t defeat the likes of Romney or Cain. If such all-powerful brokers really existed, would ‘they’ allow the current circus and daily tarnishing of the GOP brand?
Newt is indeed the major threat to Romney. A win in Iowa (or even a second place finish ahead of Romney) might provide enough momentum for Newt to ride out a shaky New Hampshire showing, then claim the southern vote with a South Carolina victory, solidifying it with a Florida win 10 days later. After these contests come a number of more moderate leaning states primed for Romney, but Newt can keep whistling Dixie and claim the mantle of the True Conservative to ride it out. I think it’s precisely the lack of such power brokers that has the GOP in a bind – in contrast to the Democrats, they used to reject flavors of the month in favor of the proven team player, but in 2012 having an establishment aura probably hurts more than it helps, and Newt might bring just the right amount of outsider spirit to hold sway.
