Okay. I normally make 
something of a policy of not responding to jabs and cracks from other websites, because there’s no end to it. But this one I simply can’t resist. Wednesday evening I wrote that “the president’s numbers seem to be in something close to free-fall. His approval ratings have fallen roughly 20 percentage points in four months … the president’s rapid descent is undeniable. And it’s not clear he’s hit bottom.”
Au Contraire! says the Wall Street Journal online, referring to my quote above. The WSJ argues that my post represents “a triumph of hope over arithmetic.”
Why?
The president’s current rate of decline, they note, is “unsustainable” since it would lead to a mere 9% approval rating by May 2004. (They actually provide a chart.)
Continues the WSJ …
Mathematically, then, Bush’s “free fall” has to end at some point, with his ratings at least leveling off. And it seems likely that his “bottom” is a lot closer to the current 49% than to zero, for the simple reason that his own party remains united behind them.
Now, it’s true that the finite number of people in the country able to offer support does represent something of a brake on one’s ability to keep falling in the polls indefinitely. But somehow, if I were a Republican, I’m not sure I’d find the Journal’s analysis that reassuring. My analysis may be a triumph of hope over mathematics. But I’d call theirs an unwitting triumph of mathematics over hope.
A lot closer to 49% than zero!
Is that the new motto? How the mighty have fallen.
