The White House is worried about the Plame investigation. But I’ll bet this poll — or their own internal ones that match it — is what has their attention.
According to a Miami Herald poll released this morning, John Kerry is beating the president 49% to 43% among registered voters in Florida, with Ralph Nader picking up 3%.
That’s bad news for the White House.
It will be difficult for John Kerry to win this election without winning Florida. But it will be all but impossible for the president to win without winning there.
I think most political professionals would agree that the significant number here isn’t Kerry’s relatively strong 49%, but Bush’s pretty poor reelect number of 43%.
Incumbent presidents, the known quantity in a national election, tend to get what they poll. That’s one reason why the 1996 presidential election turned out closer than many expected. Clinton was polling around 49% with Bob Dole trailing far behind him.
But if you hadn’t decided to vote for Bill Clinton after watching him for four years on the job, there was probably a reason. And the undecideds broke heavily for Dole, thus making the final margin seem closer than the polls suggested.
Let’s of course do the standard disclaimer: these are early numbers which are likely to change. After all, if John Kerry ended up beating President Bush by six points in Florida I suspect that would mean that he’d crushed the president nationwide. I don’t expect that to happen. But if the Kerry campaign can make the Bush campaign fight hard for what is at least marginally their home turf, that’s a big deal in itself which could have ripple effects in Ohio, Missouri, Pennsylvania and other states across the country.
