More on the Rhode Island senate race …
I should say, by way of explanation and disclosure, that I lived in Rhode Island from 1992 to 1998. So I feel a certain attachment to the place and its politics.
With respect to the post below, one friend wrote in to tell me that I’d misread the new poll showing Linc Chafee just ahead of his nearest Democratic challenger 41% to 36%. “Any incumbent under 50 is in some trouble,” he told me.
Yes and no. Certainly, under normal circumstances, any incumbent who’s running that far under 50% is in a lot of trouble, by definition. And Chafee still is in a lot of trouble, especially since Rhode Island is such a blue state. But if you’ve lived in Rhode Island you know that Chafees are sort of like cats with nine lives. They’re uncannily hard to beat.
More to the point, if the incumbent Republican is way down in the low 40s, far better that your guy is ahead of him, rather than behind.
I’ve heard good things about Whitehouse, Chafee’s likely opponent. And I think he’s got a decent shot at winning. But the stone cold truth is that with Jim Langevin in the race Chafee would be heading back to Rhode Island for good. And now that’s not clear.
Of course, the GOP money caucus could still run a primary challenger against Chafee. And that could knock Chafee out for good too.
