Last night a reader wrote in to say that whatever the signs of belligerence on either side of the Iraq-Iran border, there wouldn’t be any American attack on Iran because we simply don’t have the troops to mount the attack. We don’t have nearly enough troops available to mount an invasion of another Iraq. And Iran is a vastly larger country, both in geographical size and in population, with a formidable military. TPM Reader SG just wrote in to ask what the public rationale would be. Let me try to answer both questions in tandem.
The quick answer to this objection number one, I think, is that people who are looking to get into wars are seldom held back by not having the resources or the manpower to do it well or successfully.
The longer answer is that I doubt the United States will ever invade Iran if by that we mean an invasion in force to take over the capital, oust the government and occupy the country. Far more likely would be an aerial bombing campaign (where the US still has ample resources) aimed at Iran’s nuclear or missile facilities. Perhaps even more likely than that would be an escalating round of cross-border incursions growing out of US counter-insurgency efforts in Iraq but then taking on a life of their own.
