Virginia, we’re told, is one of those states that went blue in 2010 but has now bounced back to its reddish norm. But the first poll looking at 2012 presidential matchups shows President Obama beating all four Republican frontrunners — two by 11 points.
We’ll see a lot of polls over the next couple years. And certainly Obama can’t take Virginia for granted, to put it mildly. But it’s an instructive example of how you can easily read too much into a low turnout midterm election.