Interesting update.
In late May, the UN’s senior humanitarian relief official in Iraq, Ramiro Lopes da Silva, warned that the US reconstruction effort was too driven by “ideology” and said, in the paraphrased words of the British paper The Guardian, that “the sudden decision last week to demobilise 400,000 Iraqi soldiers without any re-employment programme could generate a ‘low-intensity conflict’ in the countryside.”
This comment gets at another point. To disband or not to disband was not an either/or or a black and white question. At a minimum it would have been necessary at some point to purge the army of unreconstructed Baathists and those responsible for the worst sorts of human-rights offenses.
The question was whether it made sense to disband the institution and give these guys nothing else to do at a point when none of the infrastructure — either physical or political — of a stable post-war settlement had been created. Perhaps a year on, if things were proceeding in a good direction, it could have been done then.
As it happened, the decision didn’t so much solve the problem of Iraq’s almost half a million soldiers. It just left them unsupervised and jobless.
