My God! I am always a bit leery of Zogby polls because about as often as his polls are dead right, they’re dead wrong.
But even if his numbers can be erratic, there’s no ignoring his new poll out of New Hampshire.
A thirty point spread. That’s amazing.
Zogby also gives Dean a 26% to 22% edge over Dick Gephardt in Iowa. That’s basically neck-and-neck. But it’s always better to be a neck ahead than a neck behind.
What’s really telling about those New Hampshire numbers is that Dean’s number (42%) has been right about there for the last month, going by the last several public polls. (I looked at three public polls from November — two gave Dean 38%, one gave him 44%.)
The difference is in Kerry’s number, which continues to fall. That’s the lowest number he’s ever tracked at in the state, judging from a quick scan of public polls stretching back to last spring.
I think this state records thing in Vermont is making Dean look foolish and the gaffes (Soviet Union for Russia) don’t help either. But for the moment at least none of that is showing up in the polls — at least not the top-lines; I haven’t seen any internals.
Also, see this analysis of the race from MSNBC. For the moment, the most consequential battle is the Dean-Gephardt fracas in Iowa.