For all the back

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For all the back and forth, up <$NoAd$>and down news we’re hearing about the 2004 presidential election, this is the most salient piece of information I’ve seen in some time.

From this week’s Cook Report, following up on numbers crumched by the ISI Group

The broader dynamics of the current situation strongly suggest this will
be a close race. Witness a recent analysis by the Washington office of
the investment research firm the ISI Group, pointing out that in Gallup
polling one year before the general election, Bush enjoyed the
third-highest job approval rating of any modern president among his own
party members, trailing only former Presidents Dwight Eisenhower and
Ronald Reagan. However, Bush had the lowest approval rating among
members of the opposition party, even lower than former President Bill
Clinton’s year-out approval numbers among Republicans. The unusually
strong approval numbers among his fellow Republicans builds Bush a very
high floor, but the equally strong degree of opposition among Democrats
constructs an unusually low ceiling. As a result, if Bush were a stock,
he would have an extraordinarily narrow trading range. This, along with
the equally divided nation, pushes the race toward a very competitive
situation.

That’s the fundamental reality of the election.

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