I have a luncheon I’m going to at noon, so just a quick update on where things seem to stand in Iowa and New Hampshire. One of the campaigns has tracking numbers out of Iowa which shows each of the top three — Dean, Gephardt and Kerry — clumped to within a point or two. And today’s Zogby poll seems to point in the same direction Dean 24%, Gephardt 21%, Kerry 21%.
As things run down to the wire, you hear a lot of things, many of which aren’t confirmable. But I know that several days ago one very high-level Iowa Democrat (one who hasn’t endorsed anyone) told folks that he thought that if the caucuses were held then (late last week) that Kerry would probably beat Gephardt and possibly even win the whole thing.
I don’t think anyone has any really solid clue what’s happening. But it does give you a sense of the fluidity of the race — and not just the Dean-Gephardt contest we’ve all been focusing on.
Meanwhile, the ARG tracking poll in New Hampshire shows some more movement after several days when everyone seemed to stay in place. Dean 32%, Clark 22%, Kerry 13%.
As always, the inevitable disclaimer. Tracking polls are notoriously volatile and often show ‘trends’ that are the result of low sample numbers on given days. Still, over time, they give some sense of where things are going. And I think Dean’s move back on to the offensive shows that his people are seeing the same thing.
