I’m gonna turn over the keys to this operation for a couple days. So this is a sign-off post. But before I go, a few points.
First off, every sign I see tells me that Sen. Lieberman is looking to cut a deal of some sort with Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina and thus with the White House. It would be a kinder, gentler phase-out. But phase-out just the same.
Individually, Lieberman’s vote isn’t that consequential. At present I don’t think the White House could get majority votes for a phase-out bill in either chamber. But give the president and the congressional leadership that bipartisan cover they’ve been hunting for and things could change very, very quickly. Lieberman would probably put a few more Senate Dems in play and also firm up the whole Republican caucus. Same thing in the House.
As I said, I think the probable deal involves raising the cap and using those new funds for private accounts, thus getting around the idea that it’s a ‘carve-out’. Of course, you can imagine other permutations. And there’s no limit to the policy creativity of a truly faint heart. Whether such a compromise would ever fly or not is another question. But I suspect it’s largely beside the point because once you’re to that point you’re into a process of legislative horse-trading and conference committees. And whether or not some people on the hill realize it, the Republicans control both houses of congress and the White House. So at that point they can pretty much do what they want.
You do have to wonder — really, really wonder — about the roots of the urge to split the difference on phase-out seeing as the public is against it and turning more against with time. The policy and the politics are both lined up on one side of the ledger on this one. This isn’t about garnering lots of press as the dealmaker, invites to the chat shows or the yearned-for plaudits of an increasingly right-leaning dinner-party centrism. And it shouldn’t be about angling for mentions in the Post’s increasingly fatuous Social Security editorials. This is about saving Social Security and now about preserving it for a long time to come.
So, Lieberman’s the weakpoint in the wall against Social Security phase-out. Sen. Carper too — but, my gut tells me, not as much as Joe. So if there’s a time to pull out all the stops to save Social Security, to mobilize pressure and exert coercive persuasion, now’s the time and Lieberman’s the guy.
If anything, the press coverage has understated just had badly the Republicans got hammered out in those townhalls last week. So I’m going to be really curious to see if there are any more shake-ups in the Conscience Caucus as a result. I’ve gotten a partial transcript of some of the stuff Rep. Chris Chocola (R) of Indiana said at his townhall meeting back in South Bend. So there’s more of his funny-business to be discussed. Even more though, watch for signs of lots of them wanting to cut a deal and get out.
So, that’s it for me for now. I’m going to be turning over the keys to Ed Kilgore of NewDonkey.com and the Democratic Leadership Council. (And for those of you who are most accustomed to thinking of the DLC as a topic in theodicy, be nice.) Ed’s a good friend. I’m a big fan of his site. And he’s an extremely shrewd observer of American politics in all its facets, both high and low. I’m looking forward to reading what he has to say.
