I have BBC coming

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I have BBC coming over cable, and my former housemate from Oxford on the IM (his Scottish better half has generously surrendered him). And there’s been a lot of cool graphics and the swingometer has done things I never thought it could do. But so far, only a dozen or so results have come in and almost all of them are from safe Labour seats. What we’re seeing is that in the rock-solid Labour constituencies, turnout is down and there’s about a 6 percent swing to the Lib Dems — but Labour still wins. Clearly, Labour supporters are punishing Blair. What really matters is what happens in the battleground, and the only marginal to have come in is Putney in western London (number 53 on the Tories’ target list). The swing was 6 percent to the Tories. If that’s indicative of anything, it will be a longer night for Labour supporters than the exit polls led anyone to believe.

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