The Count down for

The Count down for the count?

Those of you who were around for our Social Security coverage earlier this year will remember our many posts on Rep. Chris “The Count” Chocola (R-IN) and his serial Social Security bamboozlement.

Now this from the Cook Political Report …

What’s going on in Indiana? Two new Democratic polls show incumbent Reps. John Hostettler (IN-08) and Chris Chocola (IN-02) in tight races.
IN-02

A newly released poll taken for Democratic candidate Joe Donnelly by Cooper and Secrest (November 28-29, 504 likely voters), has Democrats crowing about their chances to defeat two-term GOP Rep. Chris Chocola. The poll showed Republican Rep. Chris Chocola ahead of Donnelly by six-points – 46 percent to 40 percent – but taking less than 50 percent of the vote. This will be the second meeting for Chocola and Donnelly. Last year, Chocola beat the Democratic businessman by 9 points – 54 percent to 45 percent.

It’s clear that Chocola hasn’t gotten a solid hold on this Republican-leaning, but marginal district. In the 2002 contest to replace retiring Democratic Rep. Tim Roemer, Chocola won with just 50 percent of the vote. And in 2004, despite outspending Donnelly by a 2-1 margin ($1.4 million to $700,000), Chocola took just 54 percent of the vote. President Bush, meanwhile, won this district in 2004 with 56 percent of the vote. Democratic insiders argue that Chocola has benefited in his last two races from a political environment that was tilted in favor of Republicans. This year, they note, the wind is in Chocola’s face.

Note that the poll is commissioned by Donnelly, Chocola’s Democratic opponent. But as Cook notes, Chocola has never solidified his position in his district. And in both of his races he’s had a GOP tide on his side.

So this is a race to watch, both as a possible Democratic pick-up and for high comedic value.