Say it aint so.

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Say it ain’t so. But it is so. The Ashcrometer, sadly, jumps up to a perilous 82% chance of confirmation. And, truth be told, it may warrant being higher than that.

It’s not that Zell Miller of Georgia has announced he’ll vote for Ashcroft that’s such a big deal. The Dems don’t need 50 votes on this one, just forty. And a surprising number of the Senators who are inclined to vote against Ashcroft’s nomination seem just as willing to vote to sustain a filibuster. The only problem is that there don’t seem to be forty of them out there. At least not quite.

Talking Points talked to staffers in the offices of a number of centrist Dems today and quite a few are still unwilling to say what they’re going to do – even way off the record. Apparently they still want to see how these last few days sink in before sticking their neck out on Ashcroft.

Tom Daschle’s stated unwillingness to participate in a filibuster is going to be key for a lot of these wavering members. And some speculate that Daschle’s unwillingness to go to the mat on Ashcroft may have at least tacitly been a part of the very successful negotiations he carried out with Trent Lott over power-sharing in the Senate.

Having said all that, the Senate Dems whom one might expect to vote for Ashcroft are Zell Miller, John Breaux, Max Baucus, Kent Conrad, Tim Johnson, Evan Bayh … in the very possible category Mary Landrieu, Blanche Lincoln and Max Cleland. Obviously that doesn’t get you under forty. But, hey, that’s just what Talking Points is hearing.

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