Not everyone is fronting

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Not everyone is fronting it on their websites, but the big news today is unquestionably the report that the economy grew at a rate of 2% in the first quarter. This means the basic assumptions on which we’ve been discussing things for the last three months or so were simply wrong.

Conventional wisdom held that the economy was essentially at zero growth. Maybe a few shades below or above, but basically at a standstill. Yet the economy seems to be coming along rather nicely and actually accelerated from the last quarter of 2000.

What’s less clear is which party this benefits.

Let me also say a few brief words about the Bob Kerrey story. I should preface what I say by telling you that I don’t much like Bob Kerrey for reasons which have nothing to do with this current issue. So I’ve been reluctant to say anything about it because of my own possible bias.

Having said that, I’m inclined not to believe Kerrey’s version of events. This isn’t because I think he’s a bad guy. Just if you use Ockham’s Razor that surmise makes better sense of the evidence than his version of events.

One reason is that Kerrey’s version events doesn’t seem to merit the level of pain, agony and guilt which he says he feels. Accidentally killing civilians is tragic and horrible but it happens constantly in war. Every bomber pilot undoubtedly killed hundreds or thousands of non-combatants (or at least many more than a dozen or two). What fits better with Kerrey’s anguish is a situation in which such a massacre of civilians had a certain rationale in the given situation (the idea is that they feared these civilians would warn Viet Cong in the area and help them ambush Kerrey’s troops when they were trying to make their escape) but was nonetheless horrific and wrong.

As the new phrase Tim Noah is peddling would have it, I suspect Kerrey is “disrespecting the bing.” And if not he’s, again per Noah, “pulling a McCain.”

I haven’t read all the news accounts in question, though I’ve seen the adoring press interviews with Kerrey, so I’m not inclined to say more than this. But a number of readers have asked me to comment. So there’s my answer.

Frankly, as someone who was petrified in 1990-91 that if the Gulf War dragged on he might get drafted, I’m not inclined to judge Kerrey too harshly on the basis of ambiguous facts from a situation in which I’ve obviously never found myself. But as to what happened, I suspect there’s at least much more to tell than Kerrey is letting on.

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