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A Very, Very Blue State

Let me follow up on my post below about voting in New York State. I was just emailing with a reader about how blue New York is, how dominant Democrats are and thus how much the national parties care about voting rates in the state (i.e., not much).

We all know that New York is now a key part of the Democratic electoral bloc. But I remember back in 2012 and 2008 too having a realization of just how blue it is. Probably even bluer than you think.

Here's an example.

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Please Send Us the Latest Reports

As you can see from our feature story today, Trumpites aren't just after protesters now. There are widespread and credible reports of threats - sometimes escalating to the level of death threats - against anti-Trump Republicans and particularly potential or already chosen convention delegates. Not every threat is equally serious or equally well documented. But we want to hear about and share with readers all the legitimate reports that are out there, especially because many are going to pop up in local and regional news sources. So when you see examples in the news or perhaps when you've heard of stories that we might be able to confirm ourselves, please drop us a line via email. As always the link is immediately below the TPM logo at the upper right.

New York, We Suck

We've seen a lot of attention and schadenfreude directed at the fact that two of Trump's kids won't even be able to vote for him in the Republican primary. And it's not like they missed a deadline a week ago. It was months ago. But here's the thing. Our voting system here in New York sucks.

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Convention? What Convention?

As I've mentioned or hinted a few times, I think the mix of the Garland stalemate and Donald Trump or Ted Cruz at the top of the critic will lead to big Republican losses in the Senate. Big is relative - but enough to push the chamber into the Democrats' hands in 2017. We're now seeing the first signs of vulnerable GOP senators saying they're going to be too busy to make it to Cleveland for the convention in July.

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African-Americans Key for Clinton in NYS

Hillary Clinton appears to have a consistent 10+ lead over Bernie Sanders in New York State. And as the write up in this new Quinnipiac poll (Clinton 53%, Sanders 40%) notes, African-Americans remain a critical constituency. Unsurprisingly, Sanders is winning with those who identify themselves as "very liberal" (though not by a huge margin) and young voters (the largest cleavage beside race). But African-Americans are supporting Clinton by a 65% to 28% margin, which is to say a massive margin.

Time to Reform Big Sanders?

Former TPMer Greg Sargent has an interesting post today about how the Sanders campaign could end and end well - specifically, by using his clout at the convention to reform the primary process. It's an intriguing suggestion and makes a lot of sense since the Democrats' system could use reforming even if it's not quite as messed up as the Republicans' one. But the problem is that the things most in need of reforming are the only things keeping Sanders in the race. That may sound like a provocation. But it's actually true!

Let me explain.

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That Ain't the Summit, Just One Hill

We're starting to see Donald Trump move into full "I'm being cheated" and "the system is rigged" mode as Cruz makes more progress on the 'dark delegate' front and perhaps makes progress in the polls too. Trump is starting to sound both literally and figuratively like a loser. But remember, for this to play out how the big party stakeholders want it to they've got to steal it from Trump AND Ted Cruz. Yes, both. That seems awful, awful hard to me.