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Danger on November 9th

I've been wanting to discuss this. But so much has been happening it keeps getting pushed back to the next day or the next post. Quite simply, everybody needs to be paying close attention to what happens on November 9th.

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It's Alive! It's Alive!

The Trump book manuscript is taking shape. Everyone who joins Prime on or before November 21st will receive the special edition of my new book about Trump and Trumpism in late November in advance of the public release in December. As you can see by days like today, there's a good bit still be written and I can't say I know how the story ends. In fact, I guess there's an outside chance that if Trump is elected, TPM may be shut down in the first wave of Trumpite news organization closures. But assuming that's not the case, if you're not already a member, please take a moment to sign up now. You'll be glad you did.

Age of Trump

So this happened on CNN ... (good work, everyone)

“AMANPOUR: Can I just try one last question? One last question. A bit cheeky but I'm going to ask you. Russia had its own Pussy Riot moment. What do you think of Donald Trump’s pussy riot moment?

RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTER LAVROV: Well, I don't know what this would… English is not my mother tongue, I don't know if I would sound decent. There are so many pussies around the presidential campaign on both sides that I prefer not to comment on this.”

Time Trump Advisor Had Advance Word?

John Podesta says he has what he calls "circumstantial" evidence that top Trump advisor Roger Stone had advance word of the hacking his email. But he points to a late August tweet that does seem like Stone had advance word that Podesta was the next target of an attack. Remember, Stone has already said - true or not - that he is in communication with Julian Assange. Wikileaks is the go-to distribution hub for emails stolen by Russian security services. Why the tweet.

Getting Violent

I suspect we're about to see a lot more of this. Trump supporter Todd Warnken, 55, was asked to leave a ShopRite in Albany for "being disruptive inside." On the way out he encountered a black woman waiting for a taxi. He called her a racial slur and threatened to attack her: "Trump is going to win and if you don't like it I'm going to beat your ass," he yelled, according to Smith."

10/12 Election Update

It's October 12 and the PollTracker Average stands at Clinton 48.1%, Trump 39.7, a 8.4 percentage point spread.

The TPM Electoral Scoreboard stands at Clinton 341, Trump 186. Only Arizona is in the Toss Up category.

Want to get notified every time a new poll is released in a race you're following. Get TPM's PollTracker mobile. All the polls in the palm of your hand, with live notifications for races you're following. Download it from the Appstore for your iPhone or Google Play for your Android device.

Lots of polls. So numbers may change through the day.

Facing the Abuser's Rage

As I mentioned in my earlier post, I was in meetings in Washington for most of the day. So I checked my iPhone here and there and got a few minutes poking around on my laptop. But I saw most of the day only at a distance - enough to see that the full conflagration had finally broken out but not enough to see the details.

It's hard to know quite what to say because in some ways this is the most obvious thing in the world. We've known all along that something like this could happen, indeed that it was likely to happen. As long as Trump seemed likely to win or to have a plausible chance to win, most everyone in the GOP would be happy and go along. The fact that they were happy is profoundly troubling. But that's another story. As long as Trump seemed likely to lose without making too much of a mess that was something the party machinery could tolerate. But when things started to go badly things were likely to go bad fast - even more if something extremely toxic was revealed about Trump.

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I spent most of the morning off line in meetings. I came back online about twenty minutes ago to see that we've got a new Khan family. And it's the GOP!

You built this, guys.

Free fall

Polls seldom show actual free fall. But this looks a bit like free fall.