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Trump's New Voters? Ummm ... No

In response to my post below expressing deep skepticism about whether Donald Trump is really 'bringing new people into the system', I heard a few brief mentions that Trump is doing better in exit polls among 'first time voters.' This wouldn't be altogether surprising: he is the outsider candidate. Someone has to win first time voters. And I wouldn't expect it to be Bush or Marco Rubio.

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New People in the System? I Doubt It

I was just listening to MSNBC and there was a comment in passing about Trump about the GOP's need to keep the 'new people Trump has brought into the system.' Here's the thing: I strongly suspect this premise, indeed, the very statement, is simply false.

To be clear, this isn't a dig at MSNBC. This is totally conventional wisdom and I've heard versions of it from numerous publications. The idea here is that Trump supporters or substantial numbers of them simply were not voting before Trump came along or were not voting for the GOP. I very much doubt that's true.

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Whistling Past the Grave

In case you missed it, I wanted to flag this post over the weekend. I hate to say I told you so, but ... well, we have more poll data which shows that substantial majorities of Republicans don't think it's okay to deny the nomination to the person who got the most votes. That doesn't mean it won't happen. But as I said earlier, you can have whatever rules you want. But the whole process depends on the perceived legitimacy of the process. And it seems pretty clear that a clear majority of Republican primary voters do not think this would be okay.

Foreshadowing Cleveland?

Epic US Virgin Islands party meeting this weekend features guns, cops, plenty of Crazy and a delegate to the national convention thrown to the ground in a scuffle. Lauren has the story.

The Lines Are Hardening

I mentioned before that Republican primary voters nationwide seem clearly against awarding the party's presidential nomination to someone who didn't get the most votes or delegates in the primaries and caucuses, regardless of who they support themselves. A new poll shows that 62% of Republicans say it would be "unacceptable" for the candidate who won the most votes not to get the nomination, if no candidate was able to clinch outright by getting to 1237 delegates.

There are two additional points worth noting about this new poll.

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Another Look at the Origins of European Hegemony

Following up on my review of Pathfinders, I wanted to return to another book that I discussed a few years ago. This is actually a revised version of an earlier review. But I'm returning to it because this is another book that centers on this basic historical question of why did Europe dominate the last two or three centuries of global history. It is a fascinating question and one that is only now quite approachable as dominance of Europe and now North America's extension of Europe has begun to recede.

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Trumpmentum. Yes, Trumpmentum. Really.

Earlier this week, numerous pundits were suggesting that Donald Trump's presidential campaign was all but finished. A number claimed that unless Trump came into the convention with 1237+ delegates and secured the nomination on the first ballot, he was toast.

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