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Not everyone is fronting

Not everyone is fronting it on their websites, but the big news today is unquestionably the report that the economy grew at a rate of 2% in the first quarter. This means the basic assumptions on which we've been discussing things for the last three months or so were simply wrong.

Conventional wisdom held that the economy was essentially at zero growth. Maybe a few shades below or above, but basically at a standstill. Yet the economy seems to be coming along rather nicely and actually accelerated from the last quarter of 2000.

What's less clear is which party this benefits.

Let me also say a few brief words about the Bob Kerrey story. I should preface what I say by telling you that I don't much like Bob Kerrey for reasons which have nothing to do with this current issue. So I've been reluctant to say anything about it because of my own possible bias.

Having said that, I'm inclined not to believe Kerrey's version of events. This isn't because I think he's a bad guy. Just if you use Ockham's Razor that surmise makes better sense of the evidence than his version of events.

One reason is that Kerrey's version events doesn't seem to merit the level of pain, agony and guilt which he says he feels. Accidentally killing civilians is tragic and horrible but it happens constantly in war. Every bomber pilot undoubtedly killed hundreds or thousands of non-combatants (or at least many more than a dozen or two). What fits better with Kerrey's anguish is a situation in which such a massacre of civilians had a certain rationale in the given situation (the idea is that they feared these civilians would warn Viet Cong in the area and help them ambush Kerrey's troops when they were trying to make their escape) but was nonetheless horrific and wrong.

As the new phrase Tim Noah is peddling would have it, I suspect Kerrey is "disrespecting the bing." And if not he's, again per Noah, "pulling a McCain."

I haven't read all the news accounts in question, though I've seen the adoring press interviews with Kerrey, so I'm not inclined to say more than this. But a number of readers have asked me to comment. So there's my answer.

Frankly, as someone who was petrified in 1990-91 that if the Gulf War dragged on he might get drafted, I'm not inclined to judge Kerrey too harshly on the basis of ambiguous facts from a situation in which I've obviously never found myself. But as to what happened, I suspect there's at least much more to tell than Kerrey is letting on.

I dont know how

I don't know how else to say this. But this apparently-deserved hit piece on Texas Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is really, really funny.

Apparently Hutchison is, as they say, not an easy boss. And much of the piece is the standard order 'Senator makes staff pick up spouse's dry-cleaning' sort of stuff.

But some of it goes beyond even that normal sort of small-time abuse of official privileges.

Like this choice snippet ...

Hutchison requires a staffer to show up at her doorstep each morning with bagels and coffee and wait without knocking until the door is opened. The senator usually is driven the two blocks to her congressional office when she emerges.
I mean, what is this? Ritual humiliation? Does she make them call her Mistress Kay?

Im happy to report

I'm happy to report that TPM is about to be written up in a number of magazine articles that will be appearing in the next month or so. But man -- or at least this man -- does not live by buzz alone. So here's my brief take on the politics of Bush's environmental policy in today's New York Post.

Yesterday I was pedaling

Yesterday I was pedaling away on a stationary bike at my gym watching C-SPAN (yes, watching C-SPAN while working out ... GET OVER IT!) when I saw Tom Daschle telling a gaggle of reporters that Bob Torricelli had denied or disavowed (maybe recanted?) a press report that he would vote for a $1.4 trillion tax cut compromise.

I didn't know quite what to make of that until I read the Washington Post this morning.

As regular readers will remember, a while back Talking Points speculated over why Torricelli was bucking his caucus on the tax front when he had legal troubles that would make you think he needed all the friends he could get.

Well, maybe Bob's been reading Talking Points. Or maybe his legal troubles have just gotten a whole hell of a lot worse. Because according to the Post, Torch got up yesterday in the Senate Democratic caucus meeting, protested his innocence and basically begged his colleagues to stick by him.

Ouch!

What a fun moment that must have been.

Torricelli has never been very popular with his colleagues. He's bucked the caucus on various fronts (though he did real good for them raising money last election cycle). Having to get down on his knees and beg like that must have been rough. (The Times, for what it's worth, has Torch sounding more combative and less pitiful.)

Which brings us back to Torricelli's suddenly seeming to find religion on the tax issue.

Hmmm.

I can just imagine the private meeting between Torch and Tom Daschle before the Caucus met, with the one-time maverick and high-flyer in need of help from the big man. Maybe it went down like in the opening scene from one of my favorite movies, with Daschle telling Torch ...

We've known each other many years, but this is the first time you came to me for counsel, for help. I can't remember the last time that you invited me to your house for a cup of coffee, even though my wife is godmother to your only child. But let's be frank here: you never wanted my friendship. And uh, you were afraid to be in my debt.
Or maybe not.

Anyway, you get the idea.

I think the Dems have another vote locked up on the tax debate.

You should take it

You should take it as a given that Talking Points is involved in more or less constant communication and negotiations with wags and wonks from across the political spectrum searching for ways to stick it to the folks currently running the show at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. And along those lines, here's a thought.

It sounds like there's ample ground for a possible meeting of the minds between certain Dems (Dems, of the TPM variety at least) and the National Greatness Conservative / Reform / McCainite wing of the GOP on the tax cut front. Here's the idea.

Many of these NGCs aren't too crazy about the Bush tax cut. They're not up in arms about it exactly. But they think it's too regressive, that it should put more emphasis on middle income families.

How about a tax cut with a substantial payroll tax rebate plus a dramatically increased and refundable child tax credit? There's very little in that which a progressive could disagree with -- at least certain progressives. It's also across the board -- every gets the payroll tax rebate and everyone with kids gets the tax credit. And for the NGCs, well, they can just see the child tax credit as a school voucher. The thought has occurred to at least one of them.

Such a package would address much of what both groups say they believe in.

Now one problem is size. How big would it be? For my part I wouldn't have a lot of trouble with the price tag being pretty high -- say in the trillion dollar range, or perhaps even a touch higher? (Don't quote me on that -- I'm still thinking it over.) But the fiscal discipline issue is a very important one for the Democrats today. Not just for substantive reasons and for its political potency but also for the way it knits together different factions within the party, the way it allows them to have something to agree on to mask over other differences.

So that's one problem.

Another problem is that Dems may fear that if they legitimized the idea of a tax cut on that scale they'd lose one of their major arguments against the Bush plan. And they might be right.

There's also a problem on the NGC side of the equation.

The NGCs are very much like Scoop Jackson Democrats from the 1970s -- a handful of brainy thinkers, an equal number of pithy writers, and exactly one elected politician. And even that one with a questionable future.

(In fact the NGCs aren't just like Scoop Jackson Democrats. A few who are old enough actually were Scoop Jackson Democrats. But that's another story.)

The relevant point is that it's not really clear what troops they can put on the field -- and so far even McCain has been a no-show in the tax debate.

Still, it's an interesting possibility.

Once Talking Points is

Once Talking Points is through writing this merciless piece on the alleged epidemic of voter fraud in the United States he'll return to more frequent posts. But for the moment let me set the record straight on John Edwards.

In his online column today Wlady Pleszczynski, editor of American Spectator Online says I seem "prepared to attack [Edwards] as not reliably liberal enough, a rather strange way to think about a product of the Democratic Party's potent trial lawyer wing."

Now before proceeding let me say that there are, by definition, no bad links to Talking Points. Some are more accurate than others. But they're all good and appreciated. Especially when they're coupled with good buzz-inducing phrases like "rising liberal political writer." Frankly, who cares about the 'liberal political writer.' But 'rising' is definitely on-message with the larger Talking Points PR strategy.

In any case, back to business.

I don't think I've ever said Edwards isn't reliably liberal enough. And if I did say it, I don't think it's true.

What I'm saying is this: Much of the Edwards mania is premised on the belief that Democratic presidential contenders have to come from states that seldom vote Democratic for president. Arkansas, Tennessee, Georgia, etc. Or to put it more baldly, that they have to come from states that belonged to the Confederacy. For a number of reasons, which I'll discuss in a later post, I don't think that's true.

I also think that Edwards took certain positions in his 1998 Senate campaign which won't work well in national Democratic politics -- particularly, if I remember correctly, supporting right-to-work laws.

And for reasons which again I'll get to later I'm still not convinced Edwards is all he's cracked up to be. Not unwilling to be convinced, just not convinced yet. But that'll wait for another post.

Here is a very

Here is a very interesting article from the New York Times about states jumping into the breach and devising various ways to help seniors manage the rising cost of prescription drugs.

On the one hand this is a rather inspiring story of states devising pragmatic solutions to a pressing social problem. And there's even a nice 'laboratories of democracy' angle to it -- with different states using different devices and strategems to approach the problem.

But in the final analysis this is a story of failure, not success. For any number of reasons the provision of health care for seniors is inherently a matter for the federal government, not the state governments. The states are only getting into the act because Congress has failed to act.

Americans are fundamentally Americans, not Texans or Californians or New Yorkers. And as Crolian Progressives argued at the beginning of the last century there are certain problems that can't be solved by the states, or private enterprise, or voluntary associations, but only by concerted national action.

Health care for seniors is indubitably one of those cases.

Now as long as we're talking about national purpose and national action, I'm curious where those National Greatness Conservatives (who've got a touch of a Crolian streak in them) come down on this question. For a nation to be great, mustn't it be great as a nation?

And as long as

And as long as we're talking about Evan Bayh, let's also say a few words about John Edwards.

Like Evan Bayh, John Edwards is up for reelection in 2004. Yet unlike Bayh it's quite clear that Edwards is very, very serious about running for president.

So what exactly does that mean?

One possibility, suggested by a friend of mine, is that Edwards really doesn't have plans of serving more than one term in the Senate. Maybe he'll run for president, maybe he won't. But he won't be a Senator in 2005.

On the face of it that's hard to figure. Being a Senator is a really sweet job for a pol. Just ask John Kerry. And unless you want to become governor of your state, what the hell else are you going to do?

(Sure, you could sort of imagine Edwards playing the Cosby-esque paterfamilias on a network sitcom. But for the moment, let's assume that's not where his heart is.)

On the other hand, my friend raises another possibility. The kind of voting record that Edwards would want to put together to run for reelection in North Carolina is quite different from the kind he'd want to run in the Democratic presidential primaries.

In fact, 'different' may be too gentle. They may be incompatible. So that's another argument for Edwards' possibly not seeing himself as more than a one-term Senator.

Of course there's one more reason you figure Edwards will definitely run. One of the reasons Evan Bayh likely won't run is that he's basically part of the same club as Joe Lieberman (and, for that matter, Al Gore -- yes, I know they're all mad at each other, but trust me it's still the same club). They're all New Dems. And there are all sorts of reasons why people don't want more than one of them in the race.

A similar logic applies on the liberal side of the Democratic spectrum, though they're less clubbish so there's more of a chance that more than one of them would run.

But Edwards really isn't in either of these camps (and of course that's precisely the reason that a lot of folks are into him) and so there's really not anyone else who could throw their hat in the ring and make Edwards drop out.

Next up, we'll discuss what Talking Points thinks of a potential Edwards candidacy ... Hint: It ain't pretty.

Maybe Evan Bayhs been

Maybe Evan Bayh's been reading Talking Points. I'm hearing that he may not be such a lock to run in 2004 after all.

As Talking Points has discussed earlier, Bayh has not done so well in the early positioning for 2004. But consider another point. Bayh is up in 2004 for Senate, his first shot at reelection.You can run for vice-president and senator at the same time, not president. Is he so committed to a run that he'll risk his Senate seat? That's hard to figure.

People with some knowledge of Bayh tell me they'd be surprised to see him challenge Al Gore, if Gore decided to make another run. They also tell me they'd be surprised to see him challenge Joe Lieberman if he decided to run.

Now who knows if the former Veep is going to run in 2004. But if he doesn't, Joe Lieberman definitely will. So maybe Bayh's just not going to run, period.

Im normally content to

I'm normally content to leave carping and whining about popular culture to conservative hacks like Bill Bennet. But let's make an exception.

Last night I caught a few minutes of Weakest Link, the new game show which NBC has imported from the United Kingdom. And I must say it was the ugliest, most wretched thing I think I've ever seen on American television.

If you haven't seen it yet Weakest Link is a sort of hybrid of the Regis Millionaire show, Family Feud and Lord of the Flies. A group of contestants answer questions as a team and then at the end of each round they vote off the lamest member of the squad -- a process engineered to foster hurt feelings, petty quarrels and general lameness.

This whole mess is presided over by Anne Robinson, a prim, starchy, offensive Englishwoman who asks the questions while berating the contestants with wooden taunts and denigrating comments.

This is apparently supposed to be entertaining. And perhaps it would be if Robinson were clever or original or witty and not such a dork herself. But her insults usually amount to the 'you're dumb' variety and don't get much more clever. Sort of Don Rickles without the comedic brilliance, if you get my drift.

Here you can visit the 'brutal truths' section of the show's website and vote for which of her insults has the "most bite." (The caption reads "Anne Robinson is notorious for delivering the Brutal Truth to the contestants before her.")

Watching the show I kept thinking of some episode of Seinfeld when some dolt keeps insulting Jerry. But, sorry, I couldn't quite place it.

In any case, who finds this crap entertaining?

I mean, let's be honest. Without the charm, just what do the Brits have to offer anyway?

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