The results are in! We have election predictions from Kenny Baer, Michael Barone, Peter Beinart, David Brooks, Mark Cunningham, Robert George, Paul Glastris, Robert Reich, Russ Smith, Andrew Sullivan and Michael Tomasky. Enjoy. And remember, you can still send in your entry to the TPM election prediction contest until 9 PM EST this evening.
Kenny Baer, Super-Connected, Uber-New Dem
AR -- Pryor.
MN -- I'll go out on a limb, and call it for Coleman. The GOP learned its
lesson from 2000, and has played this masterfully. This race is a real dead
heat, and I'll predict that Mondale's debate performance will remind
everyone why he was no match for Reagan on TV. It'll be tight, but Coleman
is an attractive alternative. Coleman wins. And Humphreyism is dead.
SC -- I still think Sanders can do it. THeir internals have it close. BUt
if pushed, I'll give it to Graham. Graham.
CO -- I love Zogby's recent numbers. Strickland is the real deal, and CO
now has to be considered real battleground territory. Strickland by 2.
MO -- Appointed Senators never win re-election, and Jean Carnahan is no
exception. The numbers are tightening, but Talent wins.
SD -- I thought that this state was lost. But my prairie upset is in MN.
So I'll say that South Dakotans want Daschle in charge. Johnson holds on.
GA -- Cleland holds on. Barnes at the top of the ticket helps enormously.
NH -- Shaheen has run a masterful race. Shaheen.
TN -- It would take years to mend all the fences to elect a Dem to the
Senate in TN. Lamar!
IA -- Harkin. But watch Jim Leach lose.
NJ -- That scream you hear is Bob Torricelli yelling at the tv screen as
his arch-enemy Frank Lautenberg takes his Senate seat.
TX -- In the end of the day, Cornyn wins.
LA -- Landrieu does not make it to 50, and loses in the run-off.
NC -- The Bowles surge is not enough. Liddy Dole wins.
By the time they count and litigate all the votes from LA's run-off, the
Senate stays at the current make-up, 50-49-1. Daschle then resigns as
majority leader and announces his exploratory committee...
[Late Word ... Baer called TPM world HQ six minutes before the 5PM posting deadline and flipped his picks for Minnesota and South Dakota.]
Michael Barone, US News
Here are my predictions.
Arkansas: Pryor (D)
Minnesota: Coleman (R)
South Carolina: Graham (R)
Colorado: Allard (R)
Missouri: Talent (R)
South Dakota: Thune (R) (but who really knows?)
Georgia: Cleland (D)
New Hampshire: Sununu (R) (I've switched back and forth on this one)
Tennessee: Alexander (R)
Iowa: Harkin (D)
New Jersey: Lautenberg (D)
Texas: Cornyn (R)
Louisiana: Landrieu (D) ahead, but fails to get 50%
North Carolina: Dole (R)
Turnovers are Arkansas, Minnesota, Missouri, South Dakota, so that would
leave the Senate 51 Repubs, 49 Demos (including Jeffords).
Somehow I suspect that one of the Republican turnovers I predicted
won't happen--South Dakota to me is the iffiest, though of course
who knows about Minnesota.
Peter Beinart, The New Republic
Dems plus 1 or 2 pending Landrieu runoff
David Brooks, The Weekly Standard
The Senate will be 51-49 Republicans, putting Jeffords in the Dem column.
That means the Democrats are going to win in Arkansas, Colorado, South
Dakota, Iowa, New Jersey and New Hampshire.
The Republicans are going to win South Carolina, Missouri, Minnesota,
Georgia, Tennessee, Texas and North Carolina.
Louisiana will take another three weeks, but in the end Landreau will lose
in what will become a national race in one state.
Mark Cunningham, New York Post
This works out to no net change, I think. But I'll make my master prediction
Dems +1. But Mo. wildcard confirms a bunch of judges ...
Arkansas -- Dem
Minnesota -- GOP
South Carolina -- GOP
Colorado -- Dem
Missouri -- GOP
South Dakota -- GOP
Georgia -- GOP
New Hampshire -- Dem
Tennessee -- GOP
Iowa -- Dem
New Jersey -- Dem
Texas -- GOP
Louisiana -- Dem, after the runoff
North Carolina -- why won't they make that woman STOP? Republican
Robert George, New York Post
Arkansas -- Pryor 53, Hutchinson 47
Minnesota -- Mondale 50, Coleman 48
South Carolina -- Graham 52, Sanders 48
Colorado -- Strickland 54, Allard 46
Missouri -- Carnahan 50.5, Talent 49.5
South Dakota -- Johnson 53, Thune 47
Georgia -- Chambliss 51, Cleland 49
New Hampshire -- Shaheen 51, Sununu 49
Tennessee -- Alexander 55, Clement 45
Iowa -- Harkin 54, Ganske 46
New Jersey -- Lautenberg 53 Forrester 45
Texas -- Kirk 50.5, Cornyn 49.5
Louisiana -- Landrieu 46, Terrell (23) -- runoff in December
North Carolina -- Dole 52, Bowles 48
*Dem net pick-up of three seats,pending the outcome of Louisiana -- though
I'm going out on a serious limb with Texas. Mama always told me I shouldn't
go near that Infamy Pool...
Paul Glastris, The Washington Monthly
Arkansas: Pryor beats Hutchinson D+
Minnesota: Mondale beats Coleman
South Carolina: Graham beats Sanders
Colorado: Strickland beats Allard D+
Missouri: Carnahan beats Talent
South Dakota: Johnson beats Thune
Georgia: Cleland beats Chambliss
Hew Hampshire: Shaheen beats Sununu D+
Tennessee: Alexander beats Clement
Iowa: Harkin whoops Ganske
New Jersey: Lautenberg toasts Forrester
Texas: Cornyn beats Kirk
Louisiana: Landrieu (eventually) beats Perkins
North Carolina: Dole beats Bowles
total Democratic gain: 3 seats
Robert Reich, former Labor Secretary & Massachusetts Gubernatorial Candidate
Arkansas: Pryor wins
Colorado: Allard wins.
Louisiana: Landrieu wins eventually, but not until December runoff.
Minnesota: Mondale wins.
South Dakota: John Thune wins.
Texas: Cornyn wins.
North Carolina: Dole.
New Hampshire: Shaheen.
Result: We don't know until December which party runs the Senate.
Russ Smith, New York Press
Final spread for Senate: 50 GOP, 49 DEM, 1 IND.
GOP picks up +1 in House
Dems net 5 in statehouses. KKT loses in MD, Romney wins MA. And upset is
Simon in CA. Otherwise, Midwest bloodbath for GOP.
In Senate: MN: Coleman by 1 pt.
AR: Hutchinson by 2 pts.
South Carolina: Graham by 6.
CO: Allard by 2.
South Dakota: Johnson by 3.
NH: Shaheen by 4.
TN: Lamar by 5.
MO: Talent by 2.
NJ: Lautenberg by 6.
GA: Cleland by 6.
TX: Cornyn by 4.
Iowa: Harkin by 8.
NC: Dole by 0.5
Andrew Sullivan, Andrewsullivan.com
AR: Pryor D
MN: Coleman R
SC: Graham R
CO: Allard R
MO: Talent R
SD: Johnson D
GA: Chambliss R
TN: Alexander R
IA: Harkin D
TX: Cornyn R
LA: Landrieu (w/ runoff) D
NC: Bowles D
NH: Shaheen D
Michael Tomasky, New York Magazine
1. Ark., Pryor, +3. Housekeepergate shows Hutch desperation.
2. Minn., Mondale, +2.5. Or at least Rick Kahn better hope so!
3. So. Car., Graham, +5. But that's pretty close for South Carolina.
4. Col., Strickland, +3.5. On the wings of the Ideopolis.
5. Mo., Talent, +1.5. Unless they move East St. Louis to St. Louis tonight.
6. So. Dak., Johnson, +3. Because of TPM's great exposes, natch.
7. Ga., Cleland, +2. Roy Barnes's big margin in gov. race the diff.
8. N.H., Shaheen, +4. Like foliage, she's peaked well.
9. Tenn., Alexander, +6. So he finally wins something. Huzzah.
10. Iowa, Harkin, +5. Helped by Wellstone eulogy. Really.
11. New Jersey, Lautenberg, +9. Thanks to Fritz, now seems as if he's been in
12. Texas, Cornyn, +3. Although if polls are undersampling black vote...
13. La., Landrieu, 46. No five-oh, in other words, but run-off won't be
decisive and she'll win it.
14. No. Car., Dole, +1.5. But God how I'd love to say otherwise.
Dems pick up three, Reps pick up one, so new Senate, BCS:
BCS = Before Chafee Switches.