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We hear from our

We hear from our observers <$NoAd$>on the scene that Rep. Chris Chocola's (R) meeting in South Bend last night was a bit more raucous than this article in the South Bend Tribune lets on. And they say it was pretty raucous.

In an interview later with the Tribune, Chocola showed again that if patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel (a la Dr. Johnson), Moveon.org is the last excuse of House Republicans who get a shellacking at their Social Security townhall events. Chocola claimed that Moveon TV ads from a couple weeks ago "may have played a role in the demeanor of the South Bend session."

(For a general overview of the mood on Social Security in the Indiana meetings -- including the Count's rough ride -- see this piece in today's Indianapolis Star.)

We were particularly interested in Chocola's response to a question about raising the cap on the payroll tax. A Notre Dame professor named Marty Wolfson cited what appears to have been the SSA's new actuarial memo (or perhaps an earlier iteration of it), which shows that eliminating the payroll tax cap would keep Social Security solvent through 2079 and beyond. Chocola replied that "if it was that easy, it would have been done already" and then went on to say that it wouldn't make any difference anyway since the Trust Fund doesn't really exist.

Then, according to the Tribune, Chocola attempted what can only be called a bravura performance in misunderstanding cause and effect. Chocola argued, according to Tribune reporter James Wensits, that "if the government had not borrowed the money from Social Security it would have borrowed it elsewhere, and the money would still have been spent."

Now, if Chocola really said this, it's one of those statements that gets so many things wrong or upside down that it's hard to know where to begin. But let's at least start by noting that the federal government does not have to run big annual deficits that make it harder than it need be to make good on future obligations to Social Security. Second, Chocola either doesn't grasp or ignores the main point. Had the money not been borrowed from Social Security, the issue is not that it would still have been spent. The issue is that had the money been borrowed from anywhere else but Social Security we wouldn't even be hearing a peep about the idea of not paying it back.

We'll have more on the Count later -- including more about why he just can't admit that only four years ago he supported privatization of the entire Social Security program.

(ed.note: A special note of thanks to our South Bend correspondent DR.)

Phase-out hits a wall

Phase-out "hits a wall" in Texas, reports the Houston Chronicle. Rep. DeLay says he's "very disappointed" that only a third of GOP reps. held meetings in their districts last week.

Rep. John Mica R

Rep. John Mica (R) of Florida phones in to the Associate Editor of The St. Augustine Record from his phase-out bunker.

Mica, who is holding no meetings on Social Security this week or apparently even in his district this week, tells Margo Pope that "the details are sketchy," and he'll wait for more before taking a position. As for private accounts, said Mica from his undisclosed location, "I am concerned about making any investments (of Social Security) funds in speculative funds."

Apparently he was even more concerned two years ago when he responded to an AARP questionnaire by pledging: "I do not support replacing any part of the current Social Security system with individual accounts.”

Mica's district has the 12th highest numbers of retirees of any in the country and he wouldn't even show his face in his district last week.

There are two important

There are two important and telling articles on the Social Security debate in tomorrow's papers, one in the Times and another in the Post, both looking at two sides of the same coin: the collapse of the president's initial effort to phase out Social Security.

The Times piece, by Sheryl Gay Stolberg and Robin Toner, confirms what you could glean if you've been reading the papers closely for the last week: the Republicans' townhall meetings on Social Security have ranged from so-so to terrible, with a few cases that were little short of riots. And they're coming back to DC with an even worse case of the phase-out-willies than they left with.

Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) of Iowa tells the Times, in so many words, that unless the president can pull off a major turnaround in public opinion on this issue, it's over. He goes on to say: "I think 90 percent of the lifting is with the president. That process is starting, but it's starting very slow because too many Republicans and Democrats - how would you say it? - don't have the confidence that this issue is ever going to come up."

There you go right there. And Grassley has also inadvertantly touched on one of the reasons being score-keeper for the Conscience Caucus has become more difficult in recent days. Folks just don't want to say anything because they're not at all sure this thing's ever even going to come to a vote. And the last place you want to be if you're running next year is to have put your phase-out cards on the table -- to get all Loud & Proud about it, shall we say -- for no reason at all.

Which brings us to Sen. Rick Santorum (R) of Pennsylvania, who's probably gotten knocked around this week about as bad as any middle-aged prizefighter in one too many fights for that final payday. Nothing's for sure, certainly. But a year and a half or so from now we may look back and say, this was the week this guy's goose got cooked. Because he has wrapped himself tight in the phase-out flag and I think it's going to turn out -- judged by the most objective measure: whether the thing goes down in flames -- that he's on the wrong side of the American people on this one, not to mention Pennsylvanians.

Now, from the Times move over to the piece in the Post which focuses on Republicans who are desperate for a deal to cut to get out of this mess and, well ... and the Democrats who love them. The dealmakers they talk about are Rep. Clay Shaw (R) of Florida and the Private Accounts Book Club man, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) of South Carolina. The writers of the Post piece -- John Harris and Jim VandeHei -- then go on to plumb the debate about how similar the present situation is to the health care debate from 1994.

The real bottom line in this article, however, is the crew of Dems eager to toss a life-line to the president just as the American people are turning hard against phase-out. Take Rep. Shaw's possible compromise deal, as described in the Post: Republicans give Dems some of their add-on accounts and in return the president agrees to phase-out less of Social Security than he initially wanted -- 2 percent of payroll rather than 4 percent.

Such a deal! Republicans at their town halls are getting treated like off-pitch singers on the Gong Show and the Democrats should cut a phase-out deal that gives the president what until a couple months ago was supposed to be all that he wanted (i.e., 2 percent of payroll)?

Whoever these Fainthearted Dems might be, please pass a law barring them from negotiating the price of their next automobile, right? I mean, maybe they think Enron stock is undervalued too and primed for a comeback.

As the Post describes the terms of a potential deal: "[M]ost of these compromises would involve Bush significantly scaling back his proposals for restructuring the popular retirement program. In exchange, he could still claim an incremental victory on what he has described as his core principles."

Of course, the real deal maker -- from what I can discern -- remains Sen. Joe Lieberman of Connectictu, the new Dean of the Senate's Fainthearted Faction. Sen. Carper comes in a close second. But I think Lieberman is the one who wants it most.

Along these lines, at the end of the week I heard from a number of TPM Readers who contacted Sen. Lieberman and were told in no uncertain terms that he does not support private accounts carved out of Social Security. All I can tell you is, listen carefully to the precise language his folks use because faint hearts make for meticulous wordsmiths. Or perhaps better, ask them this: Will Sen. Lieberman rule out a deal in which the payroll tax cap is raised and private accounts are funded only with that new payroll tax money? I doubt you'll get such a definitive answer.

Rep. Capito R of

Rep. Capito (R) of West Virginia feels the heat in the district on Social Security, says she'll urge fellow Republicans to "be really cautious about what we do."

Rep. Tom Davis R

Rep. Tom Davis (R) of Virginia -- he of the dry powder -- apparently got an earful at his townhall meeting in Fairfax today.

We've also been reviewing Davis's statements over the past few months to see whether or not he fits the current criteria for membership in the Conscience Caucus. A couple months ago someone who was going to such lengths to keep his distance from the president's phase-out plan would have gotten membership in a heartbeat. But for the moment we're still reviewing the record.

There is a short

There is a short piece in the Times tomorrow noting that GOP astroturfer Charlie Jarvis plans to keep up his goonish campaign of disinformation against AARP and any and all who try to stand in the way of the president's Social Security phase-out plan. But let me take the opportunity to follow up on the O'Neill Marketing Company (OMC), the direct mail services provider that used to work out of the same offices as USANext and was at one point partly owned by them.

We've been able to find out a bit more about their relationship with Jarvis's operation. And though they apparently leased space from USANext until as recently as late last year, the financial ties between the OMC and USANext ended in 2002. In fact, from what I understand, it was Jarvis's arrival at USANext, and the new direction in which he took the organization, that prompted the folks at OMC to sever those ties.

Now, the ins-and-outs of the business history of this direct-mail company in Northern Virginia certainly aren't at the top of most people's concerns. But Charlie Jarvis is out there playing some pretty nasty hardball against anyone opposing phase-out. And plenty of folks on the other side are happy to oblige him by giving him the same in return. But, from the best I can tell, these folks at O'Neill are pretty much just caught in the crossfire.

Whatever slime Jarvis is peddling -- and he's peddling plenty -- isn't coming from them.

Jon Sawyer of the

Jon Sawyer of the Post-Dispatch has a nice run-down of how the Social Security debate is shaping up in Missouri. The basic story, like most everywhere else, Democrats love talking about it, Republicans want to talk about anything but.

In a speech before a local Chamber of Commerce, Rep. Kenny Hulshoff (R) (better known to TPMers as one of the congressmen purged from the Ethics Committee in the Night of the Long Gavels) didn't even mention private accounts.

(ed.note: Note of thanks to TPM Reader DK for keeping us up to speed on the latest happenings across the country.)

George W. Bush 1978

George W. Bush, 1978: "[Social Security] will be bust in 10 years unless there are some changes ... The ideal solution would be for Social Security to be made sound and people given the chance to invest the money the way they feel."

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