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The longer we wait

"The longer we wait, the more climate change we are committed to in the future." The formulation is eerily similar to Bush's Fram Oil Filter ("Pay me now or pay me later") trope on Social Security. So if it's not the logic he disputes, it must be the science. It would be nice, now that White House news conferences have been rescued from the "Where are they now?" pile, if someone asked the President whose scientific advice he relies upon in rejecting this line of reasoning. Of course, we all suspect that the virtual White House Science Advisor is Dr. James Dobson, but it wouldn't hurt to nail it down.

Symmetry to the day

Symmetry to the day: start with hair parts, end with other parts. A reader sends along this, which suggests that left-right dichotomies are possibly more significant than one might imagine just from watching Crossfire.

I've been posting from Austin, Texas, site of the South by Southwest Festival (if you're in town, come by the Saxon Pub Friday night at 8, all will be explained), but I did catch some of this afternoon's baseball hearing. Two thoughts: if Congresspeople used their allotted time for questions to ACTUALLY ASK QUESTIONS, more information just might be elicited. And, secondly, if baseball didn't specifically intend to piss people off, both about MLB and lawyers in general, they sure miscalculated with the selection of Bob Manfred as the mouthpiece-in-chief. I know baseball has earned a reputation for having the dumbest owners in pro sports, but didn't any of them, upon seeing Manfred's pre-hearing presentation, shout in dismay, "Oh, Christ, he's gonna make 'em hate our guts!"?

For those who've been jonesing, Social Security tomorrow.

Sudden thought watching the

Sudden thought watching the baseball hearings: is the guy sitting to Canseco's right (our left) his lawyer? If so, Jose found the one lawyer in America with a bigger neck than his own. Can we schedule hearings about Lawyers on Steroids?

But seriously, it is de rigeur today to denigrate the Robert Blake jury. Like everyone else outside the courtroom, I found the "She was shot while I rushed into the restaurant to retrieve my gun" defense almost Twinkily shaky. But two things give me pause before deriding this or any jury. One, I was in the jury pool for the Robert Blake trial. True story. Me and Christina Applegate. Still not kidding. One very long day hanging around the courthouse--"Bring a book" is the mantra for jury duty, JD is probably the only thing keeping the publishing industry from going totally under--and the cognitive dissonance between the video assuring us what an important job we're doing and the nature of the treatment we're receiving (as the lowest-paid cogs of the criminal-justice machine) all incline me toward great respect for the people who actually end up serving.

The second thing that keeps me from knee-jerk juror derision was the memory of how cruel we all were toward the O.J. Simpson criminal trial jury. "They only took five hours to deliberate!" was the angry mantra of the time. (Hint: how many hours did the jury in the--pardon me for mentioning something truly trivial, given its prominence in the cable-news universe--Scott Peterson trial deliberate?) But my experience covering the subsequent civil trial brought me to another conclusion: both juries were right. We civilians sometimes forget, but jurors tend to take seriously, the weight of the burden that is wisely placed upon the prosecution to prove something--even something obvious, like OJ's guilt--beyond a reasonable doubt. Would that more highly-paid parts of our government took their legal and Constitutional responsibilities as seriously....

Talking out of both

Talking out of both sides? On the one hand, the Administration is being credited with--did I miss this memo?--nuance. Check out Robin Wright in Tuesday's WaPo. As many of us freedom-haters long suspected, one man's terrorist really is another man's newly-installed democratic leader. But adherence to the Other N-word only goes so far. There are also the thumb-in-the-eye appointments of Bolton to the UN and now, Wolfowitz to the World Bank (does your surname have to begin with "Wolf" to hold that job?). The French, masters of the cool riposte, have responded in a manner true to form. The rest of the world seems to get the message, as well. See the third paragraph here. Google includes headlines that say the appointment has world leaders "scratching their heads". At least it doesn't have them spit-combing.

Now I know how

Now I know how Mary Mapes felt. Moments (apparently) after the Rather post appeared, here's feedback that includes this reference, to the Hair Part Theory (promulgated, at least in part, to sell a mirror that doesn't mirror--that is, that doesn't reverse left-to-right). If this site is to be believed, Jimmy Carter also toyed with the idea of a changed part. I thought I was being trivial, and still I lumbered into the land of a Theory.

Josh Marshall about to

Josh Marshall, about to be wed, is making the biggest mistake of his life: entrusting TPM to me for the next couple of days. I’ll try to keep the damage to a respectable minimum, since I’m also a regular reader, but no guarantees about the furniture.

As a humor-type person, I reserve the right to bring the conversation right down to the trivial and superficial, where American media really dwell. And that’s where we’ll start. Having said my own farewell to Dan Rather with personally gathered highlights of his career here, here, here, here, and here, I hope at least some listeners gathered that the noise about his “bias” is so damned irrelevant to understanding what was wrong, not just at the end but straight on through. About half of it was Dan himself, as the clips may show (another one, really amazing, airs this Sunday), but the other half is the nature of the network anchor job itself: sitting in New York reading prompter and, as Ken Auletta showed in his recent profile, assuming the Managing Editor mantle for important visitors, then occasionally parachuting into a news hotspot for, at most, 24 hours of finding out the answer to the only question they have time to ask: what’s the mood here?

All that being said, I’m amazed that a salient fact about Dan’s last few years escaped notice during last week’s barrage of Rathermania and Ratherphobia. Namely, what other distinguished personage of such lengthy service in the public eye suddenly decides, in the last few years of his career, to change the side of his head on which he parts his hair? That, my friends, is plain weird. Sure, he changed the haircut, opting for the youthful short-and-semi-spiky look, and, after a lot of to-and-froing with the dye bottle, allowed himself to go gray, then white. But all that could have been consisten with the right-side part we’d come to know and....know. Somehow, Dan decided--and you’ll hear from the clips that these are decisions to which he gives long and thoughtful consideration--that all that was not enough, that the twilight of a long life on camera had to be marked with a migratory part. And nobody asked why. Until now.

My time is up.

My time is up. To summarize my main points:

Social Security privatization = bad.

Other than that, I hope (if you don't already) you'll consider reading and subscribing to the New Republic.

UPDATE: I've gotten several emails from readers who claim they won't read me, or won't read TNR, because of this or that disagreeable position we've taken. To be perfectly frank, if you think like this I pity you. Why on Earth should anybody confine their reading to those writers with whom they agree on everything? The best way to learn is to read arguments you disagree with. I voraciously consume analysis with which I disagree, both on the right and on the left.

TNR, more than any other magazine, publishes a range of dissenting views. Yes, we editorially criticized Howard Dean and supported the Iraq war. But we've also run plenty of pro-Dean and anti-war articles, including prominent cover stories. It's fine if TNR isn't your cup of tea. But if you spurn it or any other voice solely on ideological grounds, you're dooming yourself to small-mindedness.

Sorry to get preachy. I just find this mentality baffling.

Im not sure what

I’m not sure what exactly it will take for the conventional wisdom to the Washington press corps and the elite punditocracy to stop saying that President Bush has a plan to save Social Security from insolvency and the Democrats don’t. You’d think the absence of any such plan on Bush’s part would be enough, but clearly it’s not.

How about the fact that Bush himself now admits it? According to Dan Froomkin’s White House Briefing at the Washington Post online, Bush told a roundtable of reporters yesterday that he has no plan:

But he expressed astonishment that people constantly refer to "Bush's plan": "I haven't laid out a plan," he said. "I've laid out some ideas that I think ought to be considered for a plan, and that's what's important for people to know."


And in his press conference today, Bush repeated, “I have not laid out a plan yet -- intentionally. I have laid out principles.” That really ought to settle the question.

Meanwhile, Bush also admitted that private accounts do not make Social Security solvent. “Personal accounts do not solve the issue,” he said.

Nonetheless, Bush insists on private accounts. From the roundtable discussion:

Q: Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid [D-Nev.] said if he could ask you one question, it would be, 'Why doesn't he take [Social Security account] privatization off the table, and let's talk about solvency for Social Security? What would you say to him?

A: I would say, 'I'm willing to talk about solvency; please come to the table,' and I think it's very important for people to consider personal accounts. It's a concept that I think is very important to be discussed. . . .

Q: There was some confusion when you referred to personal investment accounts as an 'add-on' in a recent Social Security [promotional] appearance [in Westfield, N.J.]. Would you be open to add-on personal accounts, as opposed to a personal accounts carved out of payroll taxes?

A: No, I think the 'carve-out' is the way to go. What I was referring to in my speech, I was explaining to people that the capital in the personal account would yield a certain amount of interest, and that interest -- the monies would be in addition to a Social Security check you were receiving.

Q: So you would rule out add-on accounts?

A: In my judgment, the best way to go forward is to allow a personal account to be created out of the payroll taxes being paid into the system."


So let’s be clear where things stand. This is fundamentally an ideological fight. Democrats want to keep Social Security as a form of social insurance, and Bush wants to transform it into something else. Democrats are not willing to make a deal on solvency if it means giving up social insurance. And Bush is not willing to make a deal on solvency unless they do.

Given all this, how on earth can so many people continue to claim that Bush wants to save Social Security while the Democrats have their heads in the sand? How can this almost universally-accepted aphorism be said to have any basis in reality?

The political press and

The political press, and websites like this one, have been obsessing for weeks over the politics of privatizing Social Security. I think we may all have missed the single key development: Lindsey Graham has switched sides.

Graham was always the center of the action. A champion of privatization, he's been holding closed-door meetings with moderate Democrats in the hopes of forging a compromise. The main worry of the pro-Social Security crowd all along has been that Graham would co-opt the Democrats into some form of privatization.

That's why what Graham told the Washington Post last week is so crucial. In the interview, he called private accounts a "sideshow." There was also this:

"Let's have a conversation along these lines: Let's make a commitment to permanently find solvency, and see where we go," he said. "Set the accounts aside for a moment. Let's see if we can find solvency."


That position is known as "the Democratic position." Democrats are willing to discuss Social Security's solvency, but not privatization. In the same article, Treasury Secretary John Snow said, "the administration is saying that the solvency issue, if it's going to be dealt with in a way that's fair to younger people, has to make available to them this opportunity to build a nest egg through the personal accounts." Which is in keeping with the conservative line. For privatizers, solvency is the pretext for transforming Social Security from social insurance into a system where individuals take care of themselves. If they address solvency withot adding private accounts, they lose their pretext.

And yesterday, Graham voted with the Democrats on a sense of the Senate resolution rejecting large benefit cuts or increases in the national debt.

So how or why did Graham switch sides? My guess is this. Graham is an earnest guy, and he sat down with Democrats thinking he could win them over to his point of view. But as they hashed it out, and they brought up the inherent problems with establishing private accounts, he instead came around to their point of view. Instead of Graham coopting the Democrats, the Democrats coopted Graham.

Anyway, that's my theory.

From the Guardian Russias

From the Guardian: "Russia's secret services are shielding Bosnian Serbs wanted by the war crimes tribunal in The Hague for atrocities committed during the Bosnian war, including the massacre at Srebrenica, where more than 8,000 Muslim men and boys were slaughtered."

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