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What Does It Mean?

No two ways about it - a big, big night for the GOP. We won't know the outcome in Louisiana until December. But it's now looking likely that the GOP will end up with a 54 - 46 seat majority in the next Congress. We still haven't heard from Alaska. And we can't totally count Landrieu out. But this is close to a maximal win for the Republicans.

It now seems clear that Warner will hold on in Virginia - which of course wasn't even supposed to be remotely close. The big surprise for me tonight is Hagan - the polls, the quality of the race she ran, it really seemed to me that she was going to win. Hagan going down is about what should have been a winning campaign simply not being strong enough to overcome the national tide. Sen. Roberts' win is basically the reverse of that.

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Florida

This one surprises me. The polls were super close. So it's not surprising in that sense. But I thought Charlie Crist would beat Rick Scott. Didn't happen.

North Carolina

Earlier this evening things were looking pretty solid for Kay Hagan. And she's had a small but consistent lead through the whole cycle. Now it's looking really really tight. Still possible for Hagan to pull it out. But a very different picture from a couple hours ago.

Late Update: Now looking like Warner probably pulls it out; looking tough for Hagan.

Kansas

The Kansas senate race is turning out to be insanely, insanely tight. No idea who wins it. But the weird thing about this race is that at this point you're probably looking at a knock down drag out race between two guys who are going to caucus with the GOP. And that's weird.

Depending on the final senate totals, what will be interesting is that just because Orman may caucus with the GOP (and he's committed to that if the GOP wins the majority) doesn't dictate how he'll vote.

Georgia

Stuff we're hearing out of Georgia does not sound encouraging for Michelle Nunn. This one seemed within reach, at least a plurality win that would lead to run-off. Now looks like Perdue can finish it up tonight.

Virginia: Numbers starting to look more encouraging for Warner in Virginia. But if he wins it will be by the skin of his teeth. Totally unexpected.

North Carolina: It remains close in North Carolina, but county breakdown and exits both look solid for Hagan. Given how purple this state is, if Hagan holds on, that's going to be quite an accomplishment.

What Is Up With Virginia?

So what is up with Virginia? Good question. There's no question Ed Gillespie is doing way, way better than really anyone expected. But a breakdown of the counties seems to suggest that Warner holds on. Not by a big margin but holds on. The Democratic strongholds in the Northern Virginia always come in late. And Gillespie is outperforming Romney there. But it would appear, not quite enough. But anything seems possible here.

Late Update: As expected, as Northern Virginia in, Warner is tightening the margin. About a 2 point race now with 89% in. That sounds doable for Warner. Need to look closer at the county breakdowns.

And Now There's Three

No surprise (despite a brief scare a few weeks ago). But Mike Rounds has won in South Dakota. That's the third GOP pickup.

On other hand, also zero surprise, Al Franken has been reelected. Now, no surprise now. But going back six years, wow. Not even close.

Probable Holds in the East

Late Update: And it's official: Scott Brown defeated for Senate in second state. But remember, open seat in Vermont in 2016.

Still early and not unexpected: but looking solid for Shaheen and Hagan in New Hampshire and North Carolina. The county by county numbers and the exits both point to victories. If GOP rolls the rest of the table they'd hit 53. The big questions, in my view, are Iowa and Georgia.

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