In it, but not of it. TPM DC

The 24 states which refused to expand Medicaid under Obamacare are poised to give up $423.6 billion in federal funds over a decade and keep 6.7 million residents uninsured, according to a new study by the Urban Institute and Robert Wood Johnson Foundation.

"In the 24 states that have not expanded Medicaid, 6.7 million residents are projected to remain uninsured in 2016 as a result. These states are foregoing $423.6 billion in federal Medicaid funds from 2013 to 2022, which will lessen economic activity and job growth," the authors wrote.

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There were two surprising pieces of news out of Hawaii over the weekend. The first was the decisive defeat of Hawaii Gov. Neil Abercrombie (D). The other was the tiny margin of votes separating incumbent Sen. Brian Schatz and Rep. Colleen Hanabusa in the Hawaii Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, despite the fact that polling for most of the race showed Schatz with a comfortable lead over Hanabusa.

As of early Monday morning eastern time Schatz was leading Hanabusa by a razor thin 1,635 vote lead or 49.3 percent to 48.6 percent, according to The Associated Press's count of the election results. That's a small margin and doesn't totally mean Hanabusa is done. Here are a number of factors that could still decide the Senate primary.

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Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder (R) has been one of the shining stars of the 2010's Republican gubernatorial class. He has scored conservative victories like controversial right-to-work legislation, but he's also tacked toward the center on other issues like Obamacare's Medicaid expansion.

Terri Lynn Land served eight years as Michigan secretary of state, a well-liked political insider with an excellent paper resume for a Senate candidacy. She is one of the key cogs in the GOP's efforts to turn the the upper chamber over this fall.

They sound like natural allies. So where's the love? Snyder's campaign wouldn't discuss their relationship. Land's campaign initially told TPM that the candidates would appear together at an event this Saturday, but then reversed, saying it had been a mistake. It's all a bit inexplicable as Republicans look to score important electoral victories in a state that tends to go blue when the races are statewide.

"Detached." That was the word of choice when Michigan political observers were asked by TPM about the relationship between Land and Snyder.

Their campaign appearances so far can be a little tough to pin down. The Land campaign pointed to a recent appearance in Traverse City, in an apparent reference to the National Cherry Festival last month, though it didn't respond when asked if Land and Snyder had actually appeared at the same place at the same time. The Land campaign also pledged "multiple joint events" in the future despite the Saturday event mix-up.

"Terri Lynn Land and Governor Snyder are committed to moving the state forward," the Land campaign said in a statement. The Snyder campaign declined to comment on the record.

Bill Ballenger, a former GOP state legislator and long-time political analyst at Inside Michigan Politics, contrasted the Land-Snyder relationship with another incumbent GOP governor who helped a fellow Republican snag an open Senate seat 20 years ago.

Then-Gov. John Engler handpicked Spencer Abraham to run alongside him in 1994 for Michigan's Senate seat, and the pair appeared together constantly on the campaign trail. Engler won re-election with a resounding 62 percent of the vote, while Abraham took 52 percent and an improbable spot in the Senate, one he would lose six years later to Debbie Stabenow with an Engler-less ballot.

"Engler did everything he could to help Spencer Abraham. They were the opposite of Snyder and Land," Ballenger said. "She's just not somebody who's going to underscore his strengths. She's not a soul mate. When you had Engler and Abraham, you had two guys who were everything wrapped up into two. In Snyder and Land, you've got a bifurcation. Just a totally different situation."

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The Republican primary for Congress between incumbent Rep. Scott DesJarlais (R-TN) and state Sen. Jim Tracy (R) remained extremely tight as of mid-day Friday, with the two candidates separated by as few as 35 votes. The fact that the rules don't allow for runoffs in Tennessee combined with the lack of automatic recount suggests the race could go on for a while longer.

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The White House seemed none too pleased this week when the Florida insurance regulator announced that insurance premiums under Obamacare would go up an average of 13.2 percent in 2015. In fact, the administration took the unusual step of releasing its own analysis and implied that the official figure from Florida could be "misleading."

Because the two reports are looking at different metrics, they could both technically be true. And to be clear, both of the metrics look at premiums before any subsidies consumers may be eligible for are applied.

The 13.2 percent number from the state regulator accounted for every kind of plan, from silver to gold to platinum. The administration, on the other hand, chose to focus on 'benchmark plans,' which reflected a decline in costs.

The administration's analysis looked at the second-lowest silver-level health plan, which covers 70 percent of costs and serves as the benchmark plan for the tax credits offered under the law. About 65 percent of the law's 8 million sign-ups enrollees in 2014 selected a silver-level plan, according to the final HHS report.

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Tea party conservatives supporting state Sen. Chris McDaniel (R-MS) have been accusing establishment Republicans supporting Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) of "race-baiting" — but they're using that term in a different way than how it's historically been used, as a sort of shield to try and block accusations of racism.

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When a young undocumented immigrant marched up to conservative firebrand Rep. Steve King in Iowa and introduced herself as a Dreamer, Sen. Rand Paul put down his burger after taking one bite and literally fled the scene.

The awkward move — which lit up social media, made headlines and inspired gifs of his swift escape — represents the Kentucky Republican's consciousness of the power of immigration as a national issue as he lays the groundwork for a 2016 presidential run with staff hires and trips to key primary states.

The freshman senator is walking a very fine line between seeking not to alienate the country's fastest growing demographic, Hispanics, and keeping faith with the immigration-weary Republican base. He has been all over the map, from saying he's "for immigration reform" to voting against the Senate-passed bill in 2013 to voicing "sympathy" for Dreamers to supporting a potential path to citizenship while saying he doesn't actually support a "path to citizenship."

But that sort of obfuscation is normal for presidential candidates.

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