In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Donald Trump, the boisterous billionaire who has made restrictive immigration policies the centerpiece of his campaign, is projected to handily win the New Hampshire primary and in doing so, gave the Republican establishment a collective heart attack.

His win was called immediately after polls were closed at 8 p.m. EST.

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Researchers at UC-San Diego are working on a study on how voter ID laws affect turnout rates, and a working paper they released detailing the results thus far seems to confirm what the laws’ critics have often said.

Voter ID laws adversely affected the turnout of minorities, and particularly that of Latinos, the paper found. The study also revealed that turnout among Democrats was disproportionately affected, backing up claims of a political motivation behind the laws, which have been overwhelmingly championed by GOP legislators.

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Virginia's State Board of Elections is asking the court weighing a voting rights case being brought in the state to exclude any evidence of the state's history of racial discrimination.

The board filed a motion Monday to "exclude expert testimony and other evidence of Virginia’s history of racial discrimination," particularly anything that happened before 1965, when the federal Voting Rights Act was passed.

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Some insurance companies haven't been shy about their criticisms of Obamacare lately, giving conservatives fodder for their political arguments that the law is a failure that is destroying the entire health care market.

But there is more going on than the surface level threats to leave ACA exchanges amid accusations that they're not sustainable. These complaints are not just reflections of issues that insurers have had in adapting to the new law, but a way to influence how it evolves in the future, health care experts told TPM.

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The Illinois Board of Elections on Monday ruled against two complaints charging that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) cannot run for president because he is not a "natural born citizen."

The board ruled that Cruz "is a natural born citizen by virtue of being born in Canada to his mother who was a U.S. citizen at the time of his birth as the candidate did not have to take any steps or go through a naturalization process at some point after his birth," according to the board's meeting minutes.

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Hillary Clinton supporters spooked by her razor-thin victory in Iowa likely woke up Tuesday morning chanting one thing: “firewall.”

The belief is that once Clinton makes it past the ultra-white contests in Iowa and New Hampshire, where Sen. Bernie Sanders has a substantial lead in the polls ahead of next week's primary, she can bank on a more diverse demographic-- and particularly Latinos and African-Americans -- to bulwark her support in the states that follow.

That back-up plan will get its first true test in Nevada, which hosts a Democratic caucus Feb. 20. It is home to a Latino electorate expected to make up one-fifth of the state’s 2016 voters, along with sizable African-American and Asian-American populations.

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Marco Rubio didn't win Monday night in Iowa.

And no, a third place finish cannot be spun hard enough into a victory.

But for the Republican establishment, Rubio's solid third place in Iowa, clearly in the top tier with Ted Cruz and Donald Trump gives the party a way forward that doesn't pose the general election risks of the bombastic billionaire or the the uberconservative Texas senator.

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The Democratic Iowa caucus was locked in a virtual tie for most of Monday evening, with both sides trying to spin a victory in the first voting of the nominating process.

While the final outcome was still too close to call, Hillary Clinton delivered a speech to supporters at about 10:30 CT, congratulating her "esteemed friends and opponents" -- including former Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley, who dropped out earlier in the evening -- while avoiding mentioning the neck-and-neck state of the caucus.

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Ted Cruz, the first-term Texas senator who has made his rabble-rousing Senate tenure the centerpiece of his anti-establishment campaign, has won the Iowa caucuses and taken Donald Trump down in a major way.

"Tonight is a victory for the grassroots,” Cruz said in his victory speech in Iowa. "Tonight is a victory for millions of Americans who have shouldered the burden of seven years of Washington deals run amok. Tonight is a victory for every American who has watched in dismay as career politicians in Washington in both parties refuse to listen and too often failed to keep their commitments to the people."

Heading into Iowa Monday, TPM Poll Tracker showed Trump with a commanding lead over Cruz with 29.6 percent to 23.5 percent of the vote. As caucus results in Iowa came in, however, Trump underperformed and only managed to win about 24 percent of the vote, with more than 98 percent of precincts reporting.

Cruz was able to effectively knock down frontrunner Trump by capturing the appetite for an outsider and mobilizing an extensive ground game operation that included housing for out-of-state volunteers in the days and weeks leading up to the first-in-the-nation contest and an ambitious and meticulous county-by-county travel schedule.

"From day one, this campaign has been a movement," Cruz said. "Whatever Washington says. They cannot keep the people down."

Trump ran a fly in and fly out campaign that was marked by big old rallies in a state that prides itself on pressing the flesh of presidential candidates. Throughout the campaign in Iowa, Trump's campaign stayed quiet on its turnout game, which turned out to fall short of Cruz's operation.

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It’s a cliche at this point to say a primary election will all come down to turnout. But in Monday’s Iowa caucus, turnout is expected to play a big role not just in terms of who wins but in how early in the evening the major news outlets will be able to project the winners. Those staying up to see who won the first electoral contest of the cycle could be in for a long night if 2012 -- when Mitt Romney's tight victory was declared in the early morning hours (only to be reversed days later) -- repeats itself.

A big turnout could have an opposite effect on the two parties. For Democrats, it means a closer race to watch between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. For Republicans, a big turnout signals Donald Trump is primed to pull away from the rest of the field.

“If Sanders' folks don't turn out, it's clear Clinton wins," said Timothy Hagle, a political scientist professor of University of Iowa. “If Trump's folks don't turn out, it's not clear who wins."

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