In it, but not of it. TPM DC

Who Really Caused The Deficit? (CHART)


As the chart below reveals, the main drivers of projected deficits over the next decade are the wars of the oughts in Iraq and Afghanistan, the Bush tax cuts and the so-called "automatic stabilizers" -- unemployment insurance spending, lower tax burdens -- built into existing policy to combat economic downturns. Recovery measures by Bush and Obama caused a short-term spike in deficits but have mostly phased out and thus represent only modest fractions of the national debt.

The numbers, which come from the liberal-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, assume national policy as of a year ago would be renewed. Thus, they don't reflect expected peace dividends from the Iraq and Afghanistan wars, or revised economic growth projections, and it assumes the Bush tax cuts will be renewed in their entirety -- something President Obama has vowed will not happen, after he accepted a two-year extension of all the rates late 2010. But they broadly demonstrate that existing debt and projected deficits aren't largely a consequence of Obama initiatives.

Since just after Obama's victory, and with greater fervor since reclaiming the House, Republicans have used deficits and debt (the aggregate of accumulating deficits) as cudgels to attack spending on social programs. But their calls for fiscal responsibility mask an agenda, enshrined in a number of GOP budget measures, that's aimed at slashing spending on programs for the poor and elderly, increasing defense spending, and cutting taxes on the rich -- a platform that would dramatically alter the scope and size of government services, but reduce deficits and debt slowly. Obama's budget proposal is projected to yield lower deficits over the next decade than the GOP alternative.

After agreeing to significant cuts in domestic spending in several legislative deals last year, President Obama and Democrats have insisted that further efforts to improve the nation's fiscal outlook include new revenues. The GOP has balked at this demand, and as a result, Congress has gridlocked and isn't expected to resolve any significant tax and spending issues until after the November election.

Chart by TPM's Clayton Ashley