VA-05: GOPers Await Fate In A Race At The Heart Of Midterm Elections

GOP primary candidates for VA-5: Feda Morton, Robert Hurt, Jim McKelvey
Start your day with TPM.
Sign up for the Morning Memo newsletter

It’s one of the most hotly contested primaries this election cycle with seven Republicans vying to take on Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello in Virginia’s fifth Congressional district. The GOP would need to oust Perriello, a vulnerable freshman, if they want to recapture the House this fall, and today, we’ll find out who will carry the Republican mantle into the November election.

State Sen. Robert Hurt, the establishment-favored candidate, is poised to win the primary today, having bested tea partiers and conservative favorites who attracted national attention this year but fizzled out. This primary battle was in many ways a test of the tea party’s mettle in this south central Virginia district that was held by a Republican for many years until Perriello won in an Obama wave in 2008. And the general election will be a microcosm of many of the elements at play in national politics today – a Republican who doesn’t fit the exact conservative mold and a Democrat the GOP will try to paint as a Nancy Pelosi yes man out of step with the district.

Republicans will try to put Perriello on the defensive over his vote for health care reform, the stimulus plan and a cap and trade climate bill to capitalize on general discomfort with fiscal issues in Washington. Meanwhile, if Hurt wins, the Democrats will slam him on the same topic that Republicans used to target him in the primary – a 2004 vote for a $1.4 billion tax increase under then-Gov. Mark Warner (D). The Democrats suggest Hurt’s tax record is fair game and that it puts his credibility in question. They’ll also use the critiques from his GOP rivals to bolster their own argument.

Keep an eye on how divided the rest of the votes turn out tomorrow night. Hurt may not be able to excite the conservative base in the district, and may even face a challenge from the right on the general election ballot.

Republican candidate Ron Lee Ferrin lashed out at Hurt in an interview with me late last week, saying he was handpicked by the national party. “They decided he was going to be their nominee without considering anyone else,” said Ferrin, who believes he has a chance because he’s campaigning for “atypical” votes in the college town of Charlottesville and doing outreach with black voters.

Ferrin said Hurt “will be under a microscope” for his tax record and said the bottom line is that Republicans “need to be conservative” if they want to win. As I’ve been reporting, the one-time conservative favorite Laurence Verga has deflated, losing campaign staffers and momentum in the months since Laura Ingraham endorsed his candidacy as the real “conservative” in the race.

It’s been a nasty fight along the way. In one of the strangest radio ads of the cycle, GOP candidate Jim McKelvey uses a Bill Clinton impersonator to mock endorse Hurt as a way of making him seem too liberal. It’s also got some cadence that could be a dog whistle to social conservatives.

“Clinton” says, “Boy I like that Robert Hurt, he helped my buddy and fellow Democrat Mark Warner pass the largest tax increase in Virginia history. I like him, I. Would. Vote. For. That. Man, Robert Hurt, ’cause he loves takes like me.” Listen:

The other candidates are Verga, Michael McPadden, county supervisor Kenneth Boyd and Feda Kidd Morton. I interviewed Morton and she predicted a victory given her showing in recent straw polls.

The district voted 51%-48% for John McCain (R) in 2008, but Perriello unseated Rep. Virgil Goode (R) by 727 votes out of over 315,000 cast. That’s one reason he’s a top target for national Republicans aiming to retake the House this fall, but when Goode opted not to run for his old seat, that left them with the wide open primary.

As we reported, Perriello has plenty of money in the bank. Hurt will probably rake in national donations once he captures the party nod.

Late Update: I interviewed Perriello. Read his take on the primary here.

Latest DC
Comments
Masthead Masthead
Founder & Editor-in-Chief:
Executive Editor:
Managing Editor:
Associate Editor:
Editor at Large:
General Counsel:
Publisher:
Head of Product:
Director of Technology:
Associate Publisher:
Front End Developer:
Senior Designer: