The good news for Democrats in Michigan’s 1st Congressional District is that they already have another Democrat, Connie Saltonstall, who has announced she will run for the seat of Bart Stupak, who is retiring. The bad news could be that she’s a progressive running who was running as a pro-choice alternative until Stupak decided to drop his reelection bid this morning. An unstoppable conservative Democrat in a conservative, GOP-leaning district, Stupak had a hold on the MI-01 that the Democrats will be hard-pressed to maintain now that he’s gone.
Independent analysts agree: Stupak’s district will be a tough one for the Democrats to hang on to in November. For their part, Republicans and conservatives are ecstatic this morning — they see Stupak’s retirement as not just a defeat of one of their prime targets, but also a chance to pick up a seat they haven’t controlled for more than a decade.
The Cook Political Report described the situation this way when previewing Stupak’s 2008 reelection campaign (which he won handily): “in a bad political climate for Democrats, this district can be dangerous.”
The district, which covers Michigan’s Upper Peninsula is “conservative,” and “Republican leaning,” according to Cook. CQ Politics ranks it “safe Democratic,” but that was assuming the incumbent Stupak would be the nominee. As the site reports, President Bush won the district with 53% of the vote in 2000 and 2004, putting it solidly on the Republican side of things. President Obama eked out a 50-48 win over John McCain in 2008, a margin far narrower than either Bush win.
Republicans certainly seem excited to take a run at the seat. In statements blasted out to reporters this morning, conservatives and Republicans didn’t bother to hide their glee. After Stupak decided to vote for the health care reform bill, he became the second-most valuable 2010 prize for tea partiers in 2010, just behind Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid. Republicans wanted to make Stupak pay for his decision to vote for the reform bill, which conservatives saw as a betrayal.
Today Republicans are saying they got their wish. “After selling his soul to Pelosi, Stupak finally tells her no,” the NRCC proclaimed this morning. Tea partiers, who had also targeted Stupak for defeat following the health care vote, also took a victory lap after the retirement news leaked this morning.
“The surprising announcement that Congressman Bart Stupak is abandoning his campaign for re-election shows the power of the tea party movement,” the Tea Party Express said in a statement. “Stupak was not longer able to hide his betrayal of conservative principles because the tea party movement was determined to educate the voters in his district of his vote of betrayal for Obamacare.”
Stupak has always said that his anti-abortion stand reflected the majority view in his district. If that’s the case, Democrats may find themselves in trouble with Saltonstall as their nominee. She decided to mount a primary bid against Stupak precisely because of his anti-abortion views, and has earned the support from prominent pro-choice groups since announcing her campaign. That could spell trouble for Democrats in the fall.
Saltonstall probably wouldn’t agree. In an interview with TPMDC when she first announced her campaign, she said that there are many untapped progressive Democrats in the district eager and excited to turn out for a pro-choice candidate. Saltonstall’s campaign would not talk on the record about Stupak’s announcement this morning.
Meanwhile, Republicans are already standing behind their likely nominee, Dr. Dan Benishek. He’s surgeon who has made his anti-abortion stance a central platform of his campaign. Before Stupak announced his retirement, tea party groups had poured money in Benishek’s campaign, convinced he could give Stupak a tough run after the health care vote.
Ed note: This post has been edited from the original.
