Democrats better hope for a good CBO report on a public option compromise, and agreement among party members, to take shape quickly. Because if everything doesn’t fall into place almost precisely as planned, they’ll blow right through Christmas without passing a health care bill.
Here’s what Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-IL) said yesterday: “The scenario could be…if we reach the point where we want to move forward with the manager’s package, there will be three cloture votes before final package: Manager’s, substitute, and the original bill.”
That’s a lot of Senate jargon, but here’s what it means. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid will offer one last big change to the bill as soon as the CBO weighs in on a public option alternative. That “manager’s amendment” will be subject to a cloture vote, in order to be added to the health care package being debated on the Senate floor.
The package, though, isn’t “the Senate health care bill”. It’s a “substitute amendment” to an irrelevant House bill. Since revenue bills must originate in the House of Representatives, the Senate often uses any random piece of House legislation as a vehicle for its own spending initiatives. In this case, health care. But they can’t just glue the two together. The House bill has to be stripped and amended with the health care bill. That’s another cloture vote.
When that’s finally done, the Senate can move to end the last filibuster on what Durbin calls “original bill.” Yet another cloture vote. Each cloture vote eats up many hours. Still with me?
Durbin said, “it’s going to be something like six or seven days, start to finish.”
There are two weeks until Christmas, and the CBO hasn’t weighed in, and it’s not at all clear that Democrats are unified on the bill taking shape. The margin for error, in other words, is tiny, if they don’t want this months-long health care fight to drag into 2010.
