West Virginia seems to be on track to hold a special election this November to replace the late Democratic Sen. Robert Byrd, who passed away two weeks ago after 51 years in office. Without the unstoppable Byrd incumbency to keep the seat safely in Democratic hands — in a state that has voted Republican in the last three presidential races — what might this race look like? We’re about to find out.
[TPM SLIDESHOW: Sen. Robert Byrd: 1917-2010]
The race really starts this week. The Democrats’ candidate in waiting, Gov. Joe Manchin, says it is “highly likely” that he will run. Though he’d said last week that he’d announce his intentions today, Manchin has since pushed back his official decision to Thursday at the earliest, in order for the state legislature’s special session to address the law on a special election. He still says that it is is “highly likely” he will run.
In both the 2004 and 2008 elections, Manchin won his gubernatorial races with 64% of the vote, while George W. Bush and John McCain carried the state by 56%-43% margins. So Manchin performed 21 points ahead of the Democratic presidential candidates. But although Manchin would begin as a definite frontrunner, this nevertheless will present a key race for a Democratic seat in a state that has been trending to the GOP in national races.
A Rasmussen poll released Friday showed the popular Manchin leading two potential Republican candidates by double-digit margins, out in front of Rep. Shelley Moore Capito by 53%-39% and leading former Secretary of State Betty Ireland by 65%-26%.
A Republican source in West Virginia told us that in a campaign against Manchin, the party will focus on key issues for West Virginia’s coal industry, such as opposition to the national Democrats on cap-and-trade, and also on the health care law. Manchin has never faced a truly contested race, the source told us, and the party will make its pitch to voters on the importance of opposing President Obama.
“It’s about the future of West Virginia. It’s a conservative state that’s been trending Republican for quite some time,” said the source. “Obviously not a lot of movement when you have some longstanding incumbents like Sen. Byrd and Sen. Rockefeller at the top. But now that you’re seeing those races pop up, you can see West Virginia moving in the direction it really wants to go in.”
It’s been an odd trip to get to this election. Secretary of State Natalie Tennant (D) announced the day after Byrd’s passing that there would not be an election this year at all, but instead a gubernatorial appointment to last through November 2012, based on the state’s confusing statute on the subject. However, Tennant herself stated her disagreement with this outcome and called for the law to be changed. Manchin obtained a legal opinion from state Attorney General Darrell McGraw (D) that allowed an election to go forward this year, but also required some action by the governor and legislature to clear up the circumstances of how the election would be held. Manchin has ruled out appointing himself, but has also left room for appointing someone else as an interim Senator once the legal situation of an election has been sorted out.
Manchin released this statement Friday afternoon, confirming that he will call a special session of the legislature to sort out the remaining problems from the state’s highly ambiguous law on Senate succession:
“I agree with the recommendation that I received from my general counsel, which is why I will be calling members of the state Legislature into a special session this coming Thursday, July 15, at noon, to immediately address the succession process. After receiving opinions from both our state’s Secretary of State and Attorney General, it is apparent that we must have clarity in the law or we risk judicial intervention, which would cost much more than a special session and could delay West Virginians from having representation.
“The most precious thing that our citizens have is their vote – and the last thing that I want is for a citizen to go to the polls to cast a vote, only to realize that his or her vote did not count because a judge had declared the election process invalid.
“Senator Byrd was indeed a stickler for the constitution and the laws that guide our land and I feel as though he would want us to act responsibly to clear up any ambiguities that exist in order to move forward with this matter.”
Editor’s Note: This post has been revised since it was first published to reflect Manchin having pushed back his announcement on entering the race.
