In it, but not of it. TPM DC
If those registration numbers sound like great news for Tedisco, remember that the district itself has a voter registration of 42% Republican to 27% Democratic -- and yet Kirsten Gillibrand picked it up in 2006 and won big in 2008, Barack Obama narrowly carried it in 2008, and Murphy has a 25-vote margin from the Election Night totals. This is because the independent voters have begun voting heavily Democratic, and even some nominal Republicans are crossing over, making this seat a pure toss-up in real terms.
If we hazard a few guesses -- that Murphy got nearly all the Democrats, Tedisco got a large but slightly smaller share of Republicans, and Murphy took the unaffiliated voters by the kind of strong margins that Democrats have been pulling off recently here -- we can come to a rough estimate. And that is...a statistical tie, with the result of the election changing based on whether Murphy got 90% of the Democrats or 91%, or Tedisco 85% of Republicans or 84%.
Both parties have been predicting that the absentee ballots will favor their candidate. Democrats base this on the home counties of ballots, assuming the same percentages for the candidates as the Election Day voters. Republicans base this on the edge in registered Republicans over Democrats among the absentees. Do not believe either side's spin -- it's all based on assumptions that can be rebutted pretty easily.
The bottom line is this: We can't predict with any level of confidence what is going to happen here. The best thing to do is to simply sit back and wait for the votes to actually be counted. And of course, the candidates could take a cue from Minnesota -- bring out the lawyers to make sure that their own voters don't get rejected, and to frustrate the other guy in his own efforts.
(Note: We know for a fact that one of the uncounted absentee voters is Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, a vote for Murphy, but that hardly paints a full picture.)