The retirement of Rep. John Tanner (D-TN) appears at first glance to give the Republicans a decent pickup opportunity in 2010, in a district that voted heavily for John McCain in 2008 — but the Dems could have a shot at keeping the seat, too.
The district’s recent voting history in presidential elections suggests a Republican trend. It voted for Al Gore in 2000 by 51%-48%, but in 2004 went for George W. Bush by 53%-46%, and in 2008 for John McCain by 56%-43%.
However, a Democratic source told us that the picture isn’t so simple. “The biggest misnomer out there right now is this a Republican seat,” the source said, pointing out that the district also voted for the Democratic candidates in the 2002 gubernatorial and Senate races — Dems narrowly won the former, and substantially lost the other — and also voted for Harold Ford Jr. in his unsuccessful 2006 Senate race.
Democrats already have at least one candidate for the seat, with state Sen. Roy Herron declaring his candidacy. Herron, an attorney, former minister and teacher at Vanderbilt’s law and divinity schools, was previously running for governor and then switched into the Congressional race right after Tanner’s announcement.
“That district, I wouldn’t call it liberal, I wouldn’t call it overwhelmingly conservative either,” said a Democratic source in Tennessee. “I think a candidate, a Democrat who is sort of a middle of the road fiscal conservative – certainly John Tanner he was a fiscal conservative – I think someone of the John Tanner mold would do well in any race like that.”
A top Republican candidate right now is farmer and businessman Stephen Fincher. NRCC spokesman Andy Seré told us that the national party is not officially backing Fincher, “but I think it’s certainly safe to say we think he’s an impressive candidate.”
“We think we’re gonna win this seat, and that should Stephen Fincher be the nominee, he would be the favorite against whichever Democrat emerges,” said Seré. “The fact is, this district is an old South district that has a Democrat heritage, and like most districts that fit that description, it is rapidly trending our way.”
