In it, but not of it. TPM DC
Most southern states would see their adult uninsured populations drop by about 50 percent because of the expansions -- notably higher than many northeastern states that already have either generous Medicaid provisions or, in the case of Massachusetts, an existing universal health care law.
Depending on how aggressively the expansion were implemented, South Carolina would likely see a 56.4 - 76.2 percent reduction in uninsured adults. In Louisiana, the range is 50.7 - 74.8 percent. Even states like Iowa and Wisconsin -- states with relatively small uninsured populations but with conservative governors threatening to thwart the ACA -- the effect is striking.
In Iowa, the Medicaid expansion would likely result in a 44.1 - 69.6 percent reduction. In Wisconsin, 50.6 - 74.3.
If these states follow through with refusing the expansion, many of these people will wind up buying insurance on the exchanges -- so they're not being completely cast aside by their governors. But many will not, and the states threatening to opt out of the Medicaid expansion will also likely resist efforts to set up the exchanges themselves.