When Arlen Specter became a Democrat nearly three weeks ago, everyone in Washington was extremely “surprised,” but nobody was really all that surprised. Specter had been taking a beating from the right for, among other things, supporting the stimulus bill. He had lost the confidence of many in his party and, to ward off attackers, he was tacking steadily to the right to protect himself from a primary challenge he nonetheless seemed poised to lose.
So he became a Democrat. The move made sense as a matter of both Senate and electoral politics. Specter fits in just as well among the significant ranks of conservative Senate Democrats as he does among the ever-shrinking ranks of moderate Republicans, and his move into the majority renews what had been his dwindling hopes of re-election.
But then, unthinkably, he doubled down on all of the positions he’d taken as a threatened Republican. He bucked his new party on health care, reiterated his freshly minted objection to the Employee Free Choice Act (a bill he once wholly endorsed), and he flatly opposed the nomination of Dawn Johnsen, who President Obama has nominated to head the Justice Department’s Office of Legal Counsel.
Now, though, he’s showing some signs of easing up on the Republicanisms.
Yesterday he announced that he and Sen. Tom Harkin (D-IA) are nearing a compromise on EFCA. And yesterday, his staff confirmed to me that he is no longer dead set against Johnsen.
Of course, that doesn’t mean he’s become a poster child for Born Again Liberalism. There are only a few ways of amending EFCA that don’t involve heaving labor off the train, and we don’t yet know what Harkin will have to sacrifice to bring Specter on board. Likewise, even if Specter decides not to support a Johnsen filibuster, he could still vote against her confirmation.
But his new rhetoric is telling.
When he first defected from the GOP establishment Democrats–from Obama to Vice President Joe Biden to Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell–seemed like they were trying to outbid each other in their attempts to be solicitous of the party’s newest member. “I like Arlen best.” “No I like Arlen best.” Etcetera.
But for whatever reason, Specter embraced all of that uncritical support and then embarked on a robust campaign of squandering it. First he voted against the budget. Then he voted against cramdown–a progressive measure that would have allowed courts to force home lenders to accept new debtor-friendly mortgage terms.
This elaborate political symphony wasn’t exactly music to the ears of the Democratic base. What they heard instead was typical, ear piercing cacophony. The establishment protecting one of their own without any upside for voters. On their side (but not necessarily of them) was Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA)–a politically savvy moderate with grand ambitions who found his once promising road to the Senate suddenly blocked.
Practically without skipping a beat, Sestak set out on a very public campaign, criticizing Specter, and pressuring him to move to the left.
Specter’s own colleagues, too, were less than thrilled with things, and, ultimately declined to let him carry his nearly 30 years of seniority over from the other side of the aisle. That is, at least for the rest of this Congress.
It’s hard to know for sure whether he saw the writing on the wall, or knew all along that his conservative positions were untenable in the long term and is now beginning the slow, but inevitable process of moving into the Democratic mainstream. But it’s already having a political effect. I asked Sestak’s office to comment on the possibility that Specter will agree to an EFCA compromise, and they responded.
“Congressman Sestak supports EFCA and is a cosponsor of the bill,” says a spokesman. “He would also be supportive of labor and business coming together to compromise on something they both agree with, and with which they are comfortable.”
